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000
FXUS63 KAPX 231908
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
308 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms into this evening. Marginal
  risk for severe wind gusts and large hail in southern areas.

- Cool tonight and Wednesday, turning warmer Friday into the
  weekend.

- Active weather this weekend with a chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, mid-upper
level shortwave trough is centered just to our northwest across
northern Ontario, the western UP into northwest WI. This feature
progged to cross northern Michigan over the next 12 hours.
Meanwhile, associated elongated surface low stretched from
Quebec southwestward into the WI will follow suit across the
Great Lakes region. Intial cold front associated with this
system has already crossed northern MI with focus on a secondary
front currently sinking south across the eastern UP and
northern Lake Michigan. This boundary is progged to slide
southeast through northwest lower late this afternoon into mid-
evening. A push of much colder air anticipated behind that cold
front tonight through Wednesday.

Forecast Details:

Showers/storms into this evening; Marginal severe risk: Pre-frontal
isolated to scattered showers continue to work their way across
portions of northern Michigan as of early this afternoon with more
sun north and more clouds south. Instability certainly struggling,
as expected, but continues to be progged up to a couple hundred J/kg
by later this afternoon across northern lower MI. Wind fields remain
much stronger with pre-frontal 50-60 kts of deep layer bulk shear.
Chances for showers and a few storms remain the rule through mid-
late evening with those chances sinking south across the CWA with
time. Suppose there remains low chances of strong/severe wind gusts
and small hail if any stronger storms are able to develop -- again
aided by sufficient deep layer shear, a relatively dry sub-cloud
layer and steep mid-level lapse rates. This threat across far
southern reaches for the forecast area diminishes by 10pm or so.

Cool tonight through Wednesday: Beyond the aforementioned cold
frontal passage, strong cold air advection will be the rule tonight
through Wednesday on the heels of occasionally breezy northwest
winds. This afternoon`s temps of the upper 40s north to mid-60s
south will come crashing down overnight with lows by Wednesday
morning expected to span the 20s area-wide (wind chills ranging from
the upper single digits to upper teens for Wednesday`s bus stop
time). While plentiful sun is anticipated for Wednesday, highs
struggle to reach much past the mid-40s for most -- coolest near
Lake Huron as winds take on a more northeasterly component.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A ridge of high pressure builds over the Midwest as a trough digs
across the Plains. This will result in quiet and mild weather for
Northern Michigan (potentially leading to fire weather concerns) to
end the week. By the weekend, a low pressure and its associated
surface low are expected to develop in concurrence of the
aforementioned trough and will track across the upper Midwest. This
will result in in active weather for Northern Michigan and a chance
for thunderstorms for this upcoming weekend.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

Active weather this weekend with chance of thunderstorms: An upper-
level low and its associated surface low pressure are expected to
track northward from the central Plains to the upper Midwest.
Showers continue to appear likely, with a chance for some embedded
thunderstorms. Looking at guidance, consistency in decent CAPE
advecting into the region continues to make this setup something to
keep an eye on. Along with showers, winds will increase for the
weekend with the potential that some areas could see some pretty
substantial wind gusts, especially Saturday. However, with this
setup still being days away, stay tuned as we continue to fine tune
the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure will continue to sink south across northern lower
Michigan this afternoon. Occasional showers and perhaps a few
isolated thunderstorms expected through this evening. While most of
this falls out of a VFR deck, brief restrictions are possible in any
heavier storms or storms. More widespread lower CIGS (low MVFR to
high IFR) are expected this evening/overnight before VFR returns
from north to south by early Wednesday morning.

Occasionally gusty southwest winds this afternoon turn more north to
northeasterly by late tonight into Wednesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Wednesday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...MJG