Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 240933
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
533 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...Widespread critical RHs today...

.DISCUSSION...Cloud cover will continue to clear this morning, leading to sunny
skies and another day of efficient mixing. Widespread critical RHs
are anticipated across northern lower Michigan, beginning early to
mid afternoon well into this evening. Minimum RHs look to get into
the 15-20 percent range for many interior areas, despite cool
temperatures in the 40s. Gusty north winds this morning look to
diminish this afternoon and evening as high pressure moves overhead.
Due to an expected very short overlap time of gusty winds and
critical RHs this afternoon, and fuels not being quite as dry with
some recent rainfall, holding off on elevated fire danger wording
for now. Looking ahead, fire weather concerns are more likely
Thursday and especially Friday with continued precip-free weather,
drying of fuels, critical to near-critical RHs, and some stronger
winds on Friday.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-242015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
533 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....42-47...except 34-39 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......24 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........15-20 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier...except 11 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (505).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....18-23.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier...except 1 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the south
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....53-58...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........18-23 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (300).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 6 mph shifting to the west in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-242015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
533 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Isolated snow
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....43-48...except 31-36 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......27 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........18-23 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (618).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....18-23...except 26-31 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (21).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the south after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....51-56...except 39-44 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........21-26 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (332).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-242015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
533 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....44-49...except 33-38 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......23 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........16-21 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (531).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....18-23...except 27-32 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (26).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the southeast
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....54-59...except 39-44 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........19-24 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 10 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (319).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the west in the
                    afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-242015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
533 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....46-51...except 37-42 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........14-19 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (497).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....18-23...except 25-30 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier...except 6 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (28).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....55-60...except around 50 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........18-23 percent...except 27-32 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (369).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-242015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
533 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Isolated snow
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......20 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........16-21 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (523).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....20-25.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (32).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 9 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........18-23 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (364).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 60. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

$$

DJC
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