Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 131911
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
311 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers with embedded thundershowers tonight, drier
Sunday with temperatures in the 50s and 60s most locations.
Combination of modestly deep mixing heights and breezy northwest winds
will result in Good to Excellent ventilation across interior
portions of northern lower Michigan both Sunday and Monday
afternoon. Mild temperatures remain into the early portions of
this upcoming week with min humidity dropping into the mid 30s
for the interior. Rain chances increase thereafter Tuesday night
into mid week with the potential for embedded thunderstorms.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-140915-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
311 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph shifting to the south
                    around 12 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.15 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....60-65...except 47-52 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (548).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 12 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 18 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....33-38.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 6 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (35).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....59-64...except around 51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent...except 43-48 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1110).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-140915-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
311 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....37-42.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 77-82 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 4 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (18).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph shifting to the south after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.17 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 44-49 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer...except 1 degree warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (912).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 18 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....33-38.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 1 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (46).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68...except 47-52 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler...except 8 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1347).
Mixing Height.......6400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-140915-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
311 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier...except 1 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (38).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.12 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....60-65...except 41-46 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer...except 1 degree warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (538).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....34-39.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (17).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....59-64...except 40-45 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (805).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-140915-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
311 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer...except 6 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (44).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.12 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....63-68...except 50-55 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer...except 4 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent...except 49-54 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (934).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....34-39.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (17).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....61-66...except 51-56 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent...except 43-48 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (976).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-140915-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
311 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the south
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph shifting to the south after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.14 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1379).
Mixing Height.......5300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 12 mph increasing to northwest
                    around 24 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (36).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1472).
Mixing Height.......7000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

$$

JHV
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