Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
139
FNUS53 KAPX 010845
FWFAPX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
445 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
...Elevated fire danger this afternoon and evening in southeast
areas...
.DISCUSSION...Low pressure will cross Lake Superior today,
sending a front across the area. A band of showers will impact
most of northern lower Michigan this morning and midday. Rain
will end, and skies will partially clear, especially south of
M-32. Temperatures will climb, winds will increase, and humidity
levels will fall this afternoon. Elevated fire danger will
result, this afternoon and evening, southeast of a line from
Houghton Lake, to Mio, to Harrisville. Humidity levels will lower
close to 30 percent, with a few wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph out of
the west to northwest.
Clouds will increase again late tonight into Thursday. Some rain
showers will be possible in northwest lower Michigan again on
Thursday.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-012200-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
445 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
likely until 1200.
Max Temperature.....64-69...except 50-55 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent...except 48-53 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1212).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 18 mph increasing to west around
30 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.15 in.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min Temperature.....37-42.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (114).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68...except 52-57 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
northeast in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (227).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 9 mph shifting to the east in
the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-012200-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
445 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) until 1200, then
mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....67-72...except 54-59 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
24 HR Trend......19 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1388).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph increasing to southwest
around 27 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (113).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68...except around 51 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter...except 23 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
northeast in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (212).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 12 mph shifting to the east
around 9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
$$
MIZ020-025>027-012200-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
445 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
until 1200.
Max Temperature.....62-67...except around 51 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph shifting to the west
in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1296).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 21 mph increasing to west around
33 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 2400, then
partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....37-42.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (65).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68...except around 51 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer...except 4 degrees cooler near
the coast.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the east
in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (213).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the southeast in
the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
$$
MIZ031>033-012200-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
445 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1200, then
mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
until 1200.
Max Temperature.....63-68...except around 60 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent...except 46-51 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......21 percent drier...except 8 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph shifting to the west
in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1391).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 18 mph increasing to west around
30 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....37-42.
24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler...except 6 degrees cooler near
the coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (52).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 58-63 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the east
in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (291).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 9 mph shifting to the
southeast in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-012200-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
445 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) until 1200, then
mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....67-72.
24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
24 HR Trend......25 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1663).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph increasing to west around
30 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (96).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....64-69.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
east in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (247).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the southeast in
the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
$$
.EXTENDED...
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
$$
JZ