649
FXUS61 KBGM 020504
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
104 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather has returned thru Friday. Temperatures will remain
above average for early May. Then, a brief cool down with
periods of rain showers is expected for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
605 PM Update...

No major changes with this update. Blended current observations
into the forecast. Near-term forecast remains on track.


200 PM Update...

Clouds are slowly dissipating early this afternoon as drier air
mixes into the boundary layer from aloft. Clear to mostly clear
skies are expected tonight as a surface high slides off to the
east. Southerly winds will pick up overnight and with dry air
mixing in, decided to keep fog out of the grids for the
overnight hours. A cold front moving through as a weak low
passes through to the north early tomorrow morning with
sprinkles added to much of CNY as the front should be mostly dry
but a few isolated showers can not be ruled out.

Ridging begins to build in tomorrow with NW flow advecting in
cooler air so highs will be a little cooler than today. Dry
weather will continue through Thursday night with the ridge
axis approaching.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
350 PM Update...

Quiet weather will remain in place Friday with upper level
ridging in place. Light southerly flow and warm advection will
lead to a warmer day for most in the afternoon with highs in the
70s. Surface high pressure will be shifting to the east during
the afternoon and evening giving way to a front approaching from
the west. This will bring a chance of showers to the area
Saturday, with showers becoming more likely (55-70%) Saturday
afternoon and night. With the increase in clouds and showers, it
will turn cooler Saturday with highs in the 60s. Lows Saturday
night will be largely in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
350 PM Update...

Showers remain likely into Sunday, especially through early
afternoon, as the front mentioned above continues to slowly
press eastward. This will keep conditions cool with highs in the
50s and 60s. Another front approaching from the west will keep
a slight chance of showers around into Sunday night. However,
the main upper support with this feature is expected to pass by
off to our north leading to more isolated activity.

Temperatures will be back on the rise again Monday through
midweek, making a return to the 70s. Weak surface high pressure
does work its way back into the area Monday leading to a largely
dry day. A warm front looks to move in from the south and west
and into our area Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a chance of
showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Mostly VFR conditions can be expected through the period with
high pressure building into the region today. There will be a
weak disturbance passing across northern NY this morning and
there is a small chance for MVFR rain showers at RME during the
early morning hours, however confidence is too low at this time
so added -SHRA with Tempo group, but left conditions VFR with
those passing showers this morning.

Model guidance has also pulled back on the chances for MVFR
ceilings at RME after sunrise today, so have removed any
restrictions from the previous forecast with this update.

Otherwise, VFR clouds will diminish and clear out by mid to late
afternoon today and winds turn west- northwest with gusts of 10-20
kts.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t`storms possible.

Saturday into Monday...Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...AJG/KL
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...AJG/MPK