506
FXUS61 KBGM 071920
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
320 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and dry weather expected this afternoon but a warm front
moving in tonight brings the threat for showers and
thunderstorms after midnight. Tomorrow, a cold front moves
through with the threat for a few isolated strong storms in the
late morning and early afternoon. Cooler and showery weather is
expected late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM update...

Sunny skies with a pocket of dry air moving through aloft
evident in water vapor imagery has caused dew points to fall
with day time mixing. Winds are fairly light but relative
humidities have fallen to around 30 percent for much of the
region. Deeper moisture is trying to make its way in from
central PA so NEPA is fairing a bit better with RH this
afternoon. Tonight, a warm front lifts in with clouds increasing
as well as a threat for some rain showers and elevated
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings do get up near 1000 J/kg of
elevated CAPE and with 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, there is a
small threat for some hail though hail size overnight should
stay sub severe with CAPE being skinny.

Tomorrow is looking a bit more interesting as there is a weak
elevated mixed layer moving through in the morning to early
afternoon where mid level lapse rates get up over 7 C/km with
0-6 km shear near 70 knots associated with a jet streak moving
overhead. Some of the CAMs do get to have over 1000 J/km of
surface based CAPE in the afternoon with little capping. Despite
there being good lapse rates and weakly capped surface based
CAPE is the lack of a trigger at the time we have the
ingredients in place for severe storms. There is a 500 mb
vorticity wave moving through northern NY so right now the NY
thruway corridor has the best chance at seeing a stronger storm
in the afternoon with large hail and wind being the main threat
if a storm can get going. Decided to keep at least a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the grids for tomorrow afternoon as
any outflow from storms farther away could trigger storms to
develop later in the day despite no mid level triggers.

Wednesday night is looking cooler with a cold front dropping
south and skies clearing and dry air advecting in at lower
levels of the atmosphere. With stronger boundary layer winds,
temperatures were not lowered below model guidance yet but if
there can be some decoupling, good radiational cooling will
cause temperatures to fall below forecasted values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Low pressure will track eastward from the Ohio Valley to the
east coast Thursday and Thursday night. Enough lift and moisture
will overrun a warm front to result in the development of
showers. The coverage of showers is actually a bit more
uncertain and will depend on how convection evolves over the
next couple of days. Some of the modeling is trending south with
this 12Z cycle. That is an entirely plausible outcome with
convection involved. Still the bulk of ensemble data shows about
half an inch of QPF with locally higher amounts in NE PA and
the Southern Tier of NY. Clouds and showers will likely keep
temperatures in the 60`s during the day then only fall into the
50`s at night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

The previously mentioned low pressure system looks to linger on
Friday keeping some showers around. A broad mid-level trough
will continue to be over the region with several additional weak
cold fronts and disturbances to keep some chances of showers
around most days with the highest chances this weekend. Chilly
as well with lows in the 40`s and highs getting into the
50`s/60`s. Actual timing of the disturbances is still highly
uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through at least 0Z this evening before
showers and possibly thunderstorms move in tonight after 6Z. Dry
air initially will prevent cigs from falling until the time that
the rain arrives at the terminals. BGM and AVP have the best
chance at seeing IFR cigs as there are better odds of better
moisture arriving later in the night. There is some instability
as the showers move through so thunder is possible but
confidence is too low to include in the TAF yet. Heavy rain
showers were added for the best estimated timing of the
potential thunderstorms. Tomorrow, winds pick up and drier air
moves back in with VFR conditions returning to all terminals by
18Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon... isolated yet gusty thunderstorms
possible with associated restrictions.

Wednesday night through Sunday...Periods of showers with some
restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region,
especially Thursday-Friday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG