631
FNUS73 KBIS 131433
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Congregational RX...Three Affiliated
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
933 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Southeast winds will be on the increase at the burn site today,
starting out at 5 to 10 mph in the morning, increasing to 12 to 16 mph
in the afternoon. There is a 20 percent chance of showers in the
morning through early afternoon, with a 30 percent chance of showers
late afternoon with possibly a thunderstorm. Winds may become
gusty and erratic around any shower or thunderstorm. Humidity values
are expected to dip into the lower 30s, with temperatures climbing into
the mid 70s.

Shower chances will be on the increase overnight, with chances for
thunderstorms continuing.

Tuesday will see a 50 percent chance of showers, and possibly a few
thunderstorms. Humidity values will be elevated. A wind shift is
expected on Tuesday from southerly to northwesterly as a low pressure
system moves through the region.


.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers mid-morning
                    through the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent late morning through early afternoon, then
                    30 percent in the late afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1600, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning, increasing to
                    12 to 16 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    possible near any rain shower or thunderstorm.
Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   36  34  24  42  47  38  37  23  19
Weather cov.....    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   20  20  20  20  20  20  20  30  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2
Temp............44  49  54  59  65  68  71  72  74  74
RH..............79  68  61  52  43  37  35  34  32  33
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   7   14  14  14  15  16  15
20 FT wind gust.8   8   9   12  17  17  18  19  20  19
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.9 4.2 5.5 5.9 6.3 5.9
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.12  12  14  16  17  18  20  20  20  20
Haines index....6   6   6   6   5   5   5   6   6   6


.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Increasing clouds. Chance of showers through
                    mid-evening, then showers likely. Chance of
                    thunderstorms through the night.
CWR.................17 percent in the evening, increasing to 26 percent
                    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................3.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 16 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds possible near any shower or thunderstorm.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good early in the evening decreasing to poor
                    late in the night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................20 percent in the morning increasing to 40 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds possible
                    near any thunderstorm.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest 14
                    to 18 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.


$$
Forecaster...SCHILD
Requested by...Marle Baker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413967.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL marlebaker@mhanation.com