348
FXUS64 KBMX 101750
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1250 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024

The cold front has finally moved south of our area, with drier air
moving in from the northwest. Most cloud cover has dissipated
except along and south of the I-85 corridor, but even those will
give way to mostly clear skies as we go into the afternoon hours.
Dewpoints have dropped into the mid 50s at Haleyville as of
midday, with mid to upper 60s dewpoints at Troy and Eufaula. As
cooler and drier air continues to advect southward, temperatures
should be allowed to dip down into the 50s areawide, with a few
upper 40s not out of the question across the far northeast Alabama
valleys. Patchy fog also remains in the forecast along the major
rivers and lakes from roughly 3am to sunrise Saturday morning.
Very tranquil weather conditions are expected once again on
Saturday with perhaps a few high cirrus clouds moving into the
western counties within the northwesterly flow aloft. With light
northerly surface flow, highs are expected to top out in the upper
70s to lower 80s with low humidity.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024

We will start the long term out with dry weather on Sunday as high
pressure remains over the area, albeit moving to east through the
day. As it moves east a warm front will lift northward through
Monday morning. Over-running showers will develop and begin to
slide into the area by Monday morning. Rain chances will continue
to increase through Tuesday as the warm front slowly advances
through the Southeast. Look for several periods of rain from
Monday through Tuesday night. It will not rain the whole time, but
the chances will remain fairly high through this 48 hour window.

On Wednesday, the surface low associated with the warm front
moving through the will slide east of the area. The associated
cold front will washout, keeping the area in a fairly moist
environment. So rain chances will remain through Wednesday night,
although generally we will only see isolated to scattered
activity. On Thursday, we will see another cold front slide toward
area, although it should remain to our west. A shortwave will
ride along it though and increase rain chances for Thursday.
Temperatures look to be seasonable for the extended period.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period following
some lingering MVFR conditions at TOI and MGM early on. Prevailing
winds will be around 10 knots from the northwest this afternoon,
becoming light overnight.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms will be ending later this morning with
dry conditions by late afternoon and tonight. Much drier air will
be in place tonight through the weekend. Min RH values today will
be 40-50 percent. 20 foot winds this afternoon will be 7 to 9 mph. Max
RH values overnight will be in the 90 to 100 percent range and we
will need to monitor for isolated areas of fog. Appears though
that the winds should remain 4 to 6 mph and keep the fog from
developing. Min RH values on Saturday will be in the 30s with 20
foot winds of 4 to 6 mph. Wetting rains return Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     50  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    51  78  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  54  79  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  55  81  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      55  79  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      56  78  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  56  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        56  79  58  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...56/GDG