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000
FXUS65 KBOI 161945
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
145 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...An upper trough
will swing through the Intermountain NW tonight and Wednesday
bringing a mostly dry cold frontal passage. The west-central
Idaho mountains will see a 15-30% chance of showers overnight,
otherwise the front will be marked by an increase in winds.
Gusts to 35 mph are possible along the I-84 corridor from Baker
City to Twin Falls, and across higher mtns through early
Wednesday morning. Trailing shortwave energy will keep a 20-50%
chance of snow showers over the e-central Oregon and w-central
Idaho mountains on Wednesday while the rest of the region
remains dry. This pattern continues on Thursday with a slight
chance of showers (15%) persisting across NE Valley County.
Wednesday is the coolest day of the week as high temperatures
top out between 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Freezing
temperatures are possible in the Snake Plain Thursday morning,
with a 40-70% chance of temperatures reaching 32 degrees or
colder from Ontario to Mountain Home.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Dry northwest flow on the east
side of an approaching upper level ridge will be in place Friday.
The ridge will pass over the area Sunday into Monday. Some model
runs show a shortwave trough to the north of the area Saturday, and
even indicate that it could be close enough to bring a slight chance
of showers to the northern mountains Saturday night, but no
significant weather is expected. Our upper flow switches to slightly
south of west behind the ridge axis, and this may allow moisture
aloft to increase...so to account for that possibility there is a
slight chance of showers Tuesday (10-20%). Again, no significant
weather is expected. Temperatures will warm through the long term
period, with readings just a few degrees above normal Friday, but
then rising to around 10 degrees above normal Sat/Sun and 10-15
above normal Mon/Tue. NBM is giving almost all of the Treasure and
western Magic Valleys a 40-60% chance of reaching 80 degrees
Tuesday. Winds will be typical for this time of year, and if
anything a little weaker than normal overall.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Areas of mountain obscuration and
isolated snow showers over higher terrain of SW Idaho (including
KMYL) tonight. Surface winds W-NW 10-20 kt, with gusts to 30 kt
behind a frontal passage tonight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
W-NW 20-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Mid/high level broken/overcast through tonight. NW wind
7-12 kt with occasional afternoon gusts to 18 kt. Winds should
briefly decrease to 4-8 kt from 01-05Z before returning to 7-12
kt with gusts to 18 kt for the remainder of the night.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP