920
FXUS64 KBRO 092332
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
632 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

While today does look to be the hottest day for the week, however a
bit of relief is expected with a cold front moving into Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Thanks to the cold front expected
highs for tomorrow are closer to normal in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Meanwhile the overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the
70s for both tonight and tomorrow night as well. The haze that has
been lingering in the region is also expected to persist through
most of the short term forecast period.

As for rain chances, even with this cold front, chances of rain are
still not great. The mid-levels continue to be very dry and with
some influence from mid-level ridge the environment continues not
to be favorable for any sort of development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, towards the end of the short term forecast
period on Friday night, the influence of the mid-level ridge is
expected to weaken a bit, which might allow for some isolated
showers and thunderstorms to pop up.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Key Messages:

-Cooler temperatures expected for the weekend.

-Increased chance for much needed rainfall.

To start the long term period, a weak cold front will stall along
the US/Mexico border through the day, then lift back north on Sunday
as a warm front. This will allow easterly winds to help bring in
cooler temperatures for the weekend. Highs on Saturday will be in
the mid to upper 80s for much of the area, though we could see a few
90s out west and along the border. A bit warmer for Sunday with 80s
to mid 90s as the front lifts north and southerly winds return. With
the return of southerly winds and high pressure over the SE U.S.,
temperatures will warm through next week with triple digits
returning to the Rio Grande Plains by Monday and spreading into the
mid-Valley by Thursday. The cool spots will be along the coast with
highs in the mid 80s for the week. Overnight lows remain fairly
steady-state only falling into the mid to upper 70s each night.

Weak overrunning, a few impulses moving overhead and onshore flow
will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
through the weekend and into Monday afternoon. The Storm Prediction
Center has all of Deep South Texas in a general thunderstorm risk
for Saturday. The best chances of precipitation will be across the
northern Ranchlands where precip chances top out at 35%.
Unfortunately as you head south, these chances fall and top out only
at 15-20% for the entire period. Will continue to monitor the
forecast for any changes, and do some rain dances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Through 00z Saturday....VFR conditions were taking place at all of
the terminals with mainly SKC skies in place and some haze. With a
dryline expected to remain to the west, sfc high pressure and mid
level ridging influences remaining in place over the region,
tranquil weather conditions will remain in place through the 00z TAF
period.

Later this evening and especially tonight, clouds are expected to
increase in coverage with MVFR ceilings developing. There could even
be instances of IFR ceilings. During the day on Friday, flying
conditions are expected to improve back to VFR levels.

Winds will be out of the east-southeast between 5-15 kts through the
00z TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Friday through Next Wednesday...Light to moderate southeasterly
winds with moderate seas are expected to prevail through the
majority of the period. Short period of Small Craft Exercise Caution
is possible over the Laguna Madre is possible tomorrow with a weak
cold front moving through the Lower Texas Coast. Winds are also
expected to shift more towards the east with the approaching cold
front.

Saturday Through Wednesday...Moderate easterly to southeasterly
winds and seas of generally 3 to 4 feet will prevail through the
forecast period. Brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions will be possible, mainly over the weekend, due to
elevated winds. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible at
times Saturday through Monday which could locally enhance winds
and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             76  93  77  89 /   0   0  10  20
HARLINGEN               75  91  75  89 /   0   0  10  20
MCALLEN                 78  96  77  92 /   0   0  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  96  76  91 /   0  10  30  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      78  83  78  82 /   0   0  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     76  87  76  86 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>250-252-253-
     353.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251-
     254-255.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma