580
FXUS61 KBUF 291800
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
200 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross Lower Michigan tonight before slowly making
its way across our forecast area on Tuesday. This will end our
period of fair weather...as showers will become increasingly common
along with the risk for a few thunderstorms. Dry weather associated
with weak high pressure will return for Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
It will remain unseasonably mild and rather humid across the bulk of
western New York today...while cooler more seasonable conditions
will be found across the Eastern Lake Ontario region.

As for the dynamics supporting the above...a strong mid level ridge
will be centered directly over our region today. This will largely
suppress any widespread shower activity over the western counties...
but a stalled frontal boundary over the Southern Tier could be
enough to help focus some widely separated showers and thunderstorm
activity over the Srn Tier and Upper Genesee valley within a
diurnally destabilized airmass this afternoon.

Tonight...a negatively tilted mid level trough over the Upper Great
Lakes will shove its associated cold front across Lower Michigan and
southern Ontario. This in turn will help to ease the aforementioned
stalled frontal boundary back towards Lake Ontario. The lift
generated from this feature will keep showers in play east of Lake
Ontario...and after midnight we will also have to start watching to
our northwest where showers and storms associated with the
approaching cold front will be targeting our region.

On Tuesday...a wavy cold front will slowly work across our forecast
area. This will nearly GUARANTEE that Tuesday will be quite
unsettled with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Basin
average QPF should not exceed a quarter inch...although localized
amounts of up to a half inch will be possible in any stronger
convection. Despite the wealth of cloud cover and expected pcpn...
Tuesday will remain mild and relatively humid.

The showers will taper off from west to east late Tuesday and
Tuesday evening...as the cold front will exit via New England. While
the showers will move east overnight...clouds will be slow to clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will quickly track through the Lower Lakes with little
fan fair (lack of moisture) Wednesday with dry weather and mild
conditions. Highs will range from the 60s east of Lake Ontario to
low/mid 70s elsewhere. A weak cold front passes through Wednesday
night but again lacks any support or moisture, so dry conditions
will likely continue. This same front then returns north on Thursday
but will likely not bring any showers to the region. Weak high
pressure will be in place Thursday night which will maintain dry
conditions through the end of this period. Temperatures will remain
above normal Thursday with highs mainly in the 70s, cooler near the
lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
While surface high pressure will lie across the region into Friday,
the aforementioned low pressure will support a warm front to sweep
north across the Great Lakes. While this frontal passage may bring
a few showers to the region, the forecast area will primarily
remain dry Thursday night through Friday.

As this front continues to exit northeast, its associated surface
cold front will cross from west to east across the Great Lakes
Friday night through Saturday night. There continues to remain some
uncertainty with the exact timing and therefore held PoPs to just a
chance for now.

Brief surface high pressure will then slide across the Great Lakes
Sunday, causing any lingering showers to gradually deplete from west
to east.

Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through
the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions will be in place through the first half of
tonight...although a few widely separated thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of the western Souther Tier and Upper Genesee
valley before nightfall.

As we work through the overnight...a cold front will approach from
Lower Michigan. Cigs will drop to IFR levels in advance of the front
after 08z with showers becoming likely near and east of both lakes.

On Tuesday...a slow moving cold front will cross the forecast area.
This will result in fairly widespread showers and possibly
thunderstorms with cigs generally at IFR levels.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Showers ending with MVFR to IFR cigs
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing northeast winds will result in choppy conditions along
the central and western south shores of Lake Ontario today where
Small Craft headlines are in place. Winds will diminish tonight.

Otherwise no significant winds or waves are expected throughout
the week...with just periodic showers or thunderstorms a few
days.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Apffel/Thomas