Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
000
FXUS61 KCLE 121937
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
337 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Quebec will move northeast away from the
region as a high pressure ridge builds over the Ohio Valley by
late Saturday. Weak low pressure will move southeast across the
Great Lakes to New York by Sunday evening. A trailing cold front
will move south through the area Sunday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Gradually improving conditions are expect overnight as deep low
pressure over Quebec gradually moves farther away. Clouds and
precipitation will slowly diminish along with the gusty west-
northwest winds. Winds may briefly increase through 6PM with
gusts to 40-50 mph and then decrease after sunset. The western
edge of the precipitation shield over central lower MI and
western Ohio will slowly shift east tonight. The atmosphere may
cool enough to change the rain showers to snow showers toward
midnight in the higher terrain of inland northwest PA. Snow
accumulation will be less than an inch. Overnight lows will drop
to 35-40.
The pressure gradient will relax on Saturday as clearing
progresses across the region. A brief early morning shower is
possible over Northwest PA. High temperatures will warm and
range from the lower 60s along I-75 to the upper 40s in
northwest PA.
Clouds and moisture will increase Saturday night as the high
pressure ridge shifts to the east and an impulse in the
northwest flow sweeps across the Great Lakes. Isentropic lift
may be sufficient to trigger a few showers and perhaps thunder
over and near the lake and west of I-71. Overnight lows will
mainly be in the 40s except in the higher terrain of nw PA which
drop into the upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level shortwave impulse will track across the Upper Great
Lakes into southern Ontario on Sunday. A warm front will advance
northward across the area Sunday morning with a few scattered
showers possible. Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper
60s across NW PA to the mid 70s across NW OH by Sunday
afternoon. A cold front will slide from north to south across
the area late Sunday afternoon and evening. We will have to
watch for a marginal potential (see SPC Day 3 outlook) for a few
strong to severe thunderstorms possible. The thermodynamics are
on the lower end of the scale but could be enough to spark off
some organized convection. MLCAPE will be between 500 to 1000
J/kg along with 30 to 35 knots of Bulk 0-6 km shear. MLCIN will
be a limiting factor initially but by the evening cooling aloft
should allow some convection to develop. High pressure will
build in on Monday with cooler temperatures. High temps will be
coolest near the lakeshore and NW PA in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Further inland and across NW OH, high temps will climb
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The weather pattern will be warm and somewhat active for the middle
and end of next week. A transient upper level ridge will move from
west to east across the region on Tuesday. A warm front will lift
northeastward across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday with scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will climb into the
70s areawide. A vigorous upper level trough and strong low pressure
system will track through the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest
and eventually moving through the Great Lakes region during the
middle of next week. A cold front will push eastward across the Ohio
valley late on Wednesday. The cold front may stall across Lake Erie
Thursday and will keep rain chances in the forecast through the end
of the long term period. Temperatures will remain above normal for
much of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Deep low pressure just east of Georgian Bay will continue to
move northeast into Saturday. Clouds and showers with generally
MVFR ceilings and pockets of MVFR visibility will persist until
near sunset and then slowly shift to the east. Gradually
improving conditions can be expected overnight except in nw PA
where showers will change to snow after midnight with MVFR
visibilites. VFR conditions will return on Saturday.
Windy conditions WNW winds of 15-25 with gusts of 35-40 knots can be
expected until sunset when winds will subside to 15-20 knots with
gusts of 25-30 knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected with showers and thunderstorms Sunday
morning through predawn hours of Monday morning and again overnight
Monday night into Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Rough conditions on Lake Erie will continue through Saturday. Small
Craft Advisories will stay in effect into Saturday with a slowly
drop off of the headlines during the day. Westerly winds 25 to 33
knots will continue through tonight for much of the lake. The
eastern basin will have the highest winds up to 35 knots of Gales
closer to Buffalo. Winds will slowly decrease late Saturday into
Saturday night from the west to southwest 10 to 15 knots. By Sunday,
winds will become southerly to southwesterly and increase again 15
to 20 knots. A cold front will move across the lake Sunday evening
with northerly winds 8 to 12 knots. Weak high pressure will build
over the lake Monday with light and variable winds. By Tuesday,
easterly to southeasterly winds will return and increase 10 to 20
knots. We may get close to SCA headlines again by Tuesday into
Tuesday night. A stronger low pressure system will track through the
Great Lakes by Wednesday. Southerly winds will increase up to 20 to
30 knots by middle of next week with SCA headlines likely. Low water
advisory will remain in effect for the western basin of Lake Erie
into this evening. The water levels briefly touched near the
critical low water mark earlier this afternoon and have since
rebounded possibly due to sloshing on the lake. We will maintain the
low water advisory in case the water levels slosh back downward this
evening.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ003-006>010-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ011>014-089.
PA...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>144.
Low Water Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144-
162>164.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ145-146.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...LaPlante
MARINE...Griffin