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000
FXUS64 KCRP 210443
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1143 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Key Messages:

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across a majority of South
Texas tonight.

- Marginal risk of excessive rainfall across the northern Brush
Country to the Victoria Crossroads.

- A medium to high chance (40-70%)of showers and thunderstorms
beginning late this afternoon into the evening ahead and along a
cold front.

- Cooler with rain ending Sunday.

A few showers are currently moving northward across the Victoria
Crossroads per radar. With deep moisture in place across S TX along
with an unstable environment, showers and thunderstorms are expected
to increase in areal coverage through the afternoon hours. The
caveat is the strong capping inversion at around 750mb suppressing
deeper development. Models indicate the cap will weaken through the
afternoon hours, especially across the northern portions of the CWA.

Per MSAS analysis of theta-E, the cold front is draped across TX
from the Big Bend to LA. A trough is also located across S TX into
the Hill Country. In the upper levels, an embedded short wave is
approaching from the southwest while a stronger trough of low
pressure is approaching the region from across northern Mexico.

Models prog the trough to deepen as it moves toward Central and
South Texas this afternoon and evening. This will help push the cold
front southward which will provide increasing low level moisture
convergence as it moves toward the Rio Grande Plains. PWATs are
around 1.8 inches, which is in the 99th percentile for this time of
year. With the heaviest rainfall expected across the northern
CWA, the Weather Prediction Center has placed a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall for those areas and northward. Localized
flooding will be possible, especially in low lying areas and urban
areas. However, widespread flooding is not anticipated unless the
cold front stalls and storms train across the area.

The deep moisture, unstable airmass, low level convergence and
increasing diffluence aloft all combined will be favorable for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead
and along the cold front. The question remains whether the capping
inversion will sufficiently weaken to allow for deep convection
supportive of strong to severe storms with damaging winds and
large hail the main threats and a low chance (~2%)of tornadoes. If
the cap does not erode sufficiently, then elevated storms are
more likely to develop with the hail and winds being less of a
threat, but still possible. The Storms Prediction Center has a
marginal risk of severe storms across most of S TX west of a line
from Alice to Port O`Connor. The storms are expected to weaken as
they move south and east toward the southern Coastal Bend due to
less conducive conditions.

The other question is timing as models vary by a few hours. They all
show convection firing by this evening, but some are showing the
activity beginning this afternoon around 22Z across the north and
west portions of the CWA. Some models hang on to the convection
later in the day on Sunday.

In a nutshell, confidence is high (60-80%) that a cold front with
showers and thunderstorms will move through S TX sometime this
evening or overnight, but confidence is low (15-25%) with regards to
the actual timing and severity.

Behind the cold front, conditions will be cooler with rain ending
from northwest to southeast. Highs are expected to be in the upper
60s to mid 70s along with breezy north winds. Skies are expected to
remain mostly cloudy through much of Sunday and Sunday night. Lows
will be chilly in the 50s across most of S TX Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

We start off the long term period with below normal high
temperatures, which will rise to the low to mid 70s across the CWA
as a result of a cold frontal passage from over the weekend.
Temperatures warm to near normal by mid-week as a surface high will
begin to drift to the east and upper-level ridging sets in, leading
to the reestablishment of onshore flow and thus a gradual increase
in both temperatures and humidity through the end of the work week.
By next weekend, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s in the
Victoria Crossroads, the low to mid 90s across the Coastal Plains,
and even reach the triple digits in the Brush Country.

Mid-range guidance is showing the progression of an mid-to-upper
level trough over the Pacific Southwest moving eastward towards the
west-central Rockies late Wednesday through Thursday. The resulting
tightening of the pressure gradient will allow for breezy conditions
early Friday into next weekend, with a low-to-medium chance of wind
gusts greater than 30 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact area terminals
overnight as a cold front moves across the region. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms will remain possible with large hail and
strong winds being the primary concerns. The aforementioned
environment will lead to poor aviation conditions across area
sites, with a mixture of MVFR to IFR expected. Conditions will be
slow to improve Sunday morning, with a few showers and
thunderstorms lingering behind into the afternoon hours and
maintaining MVFR ceilings around. Winds will become gusty out of
the north and northeast as the boundary moves through the area
overnight with gusts to 30-35 knots possible. Winds will decrease
below 12 knots during the afternoon hours on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

There is a medium to high (40-60%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms tonight through Sunday morning as a cold front pushes
across the gulf waters. The showers and thunderstorms will end from
northwest to southeast through Sunday afternoon as cooler and drier
air moves into the area. Strong north winds will develop behind the
cold front with a Small Craft Advisory in effect Sunday through
Sunday evening. Weak to moderate northeasterly flow Monday
morning will shift to the east early Monday evening, becoming
southeasterly by early Tuesday morning. These weak to moderate
southeast winds are expected most of next week. By next Friday,
southeasterly flow will become moderate to strong, which could
lead to elevated seas and choppy to occasionally rough conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Fire weather concerns are not expected Sunday as humidity will
remain above 50% area-wide. With winds next week under 20 mph and
relative humidity values above 50%, elevated fire weather
conditions are not expected to develop through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    63  73  58  74 /  30  20   0   0
Victoria          58  69  52  75 /  50  20   0   0
Laredo            63  73  58  74 /  60  30  10  10
Alice             61  72  55  75 /  30  20   0  10
Rockport          63  74  59  75 /  50  20   0   0
Cotulla           61  72  56  75 /  60  10   0   0
Kingsville        62  72  58  74 /  40  20  10  10
Navy Corpus       65  76  63  73 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ231-
     232-250-255.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for
     GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...ANM/88