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000
FXUS61 KCTP 152339
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
739 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Scattered showers and thunderstorms near PA/MD border this
 afternoon.
-Mild with little to no rainfall expected through Tuesday
-Cooldown through midweek accompanied by periods of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Latest analysis shows the cold front dropping through the
Susquehanna Valley this afternoon toward the PA/MD border. An
axis of higher instability has developed ahead of the boundary
with 500 up to 1500 J/KG of SBCAPE ahead of the boundary. Dry
air and steep low-level lapse rates suggest that lower wet-bulb
zero temps and higher DCAPE may cause a couple storms to
produce large hail and gusty winds.

Across the rest of the area, dry and breezy conditions will
continue through this afternoon with mild temps. Highs will
range from the 60s in the mountains of northern PA to near 80 in
the Susquehanna Valley.

High pressure will settle overhead tonight while the boundary
drops off to our south. Dry and cool conditions are expected
with low temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 30s in
northern PA to the mid 40s near the PA/MD border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure both at the surface and aloft will remain overhead
for Tuesday, bringing dry and mild conditions along with
sunshine. Highs will range from the 60s in northern PA as well
as the ridges to the lower and middle 70s for most other
locations. Convection will likely develop along a stalled
boundary to our south and west, but most of the convection
should stay closer to the boundary away from our area. A few
showers may approach Somerset County late in the day into the
evening.

Closed low pressure will track through the Midwest Tuesday night
and into the Great Lakes for Wednesday and Wednesday night. The
boundary to our south and west will return northeast as a warm
front before likely stalling out over the Laurel Highlands. Warm
and moist air will begin to overrun the boundary while marine
air gets drawn in from the Atlantic over the cool side of the
boundary. This will bring cool conditions to the area along with
periods of rainfall. A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but
any convection should be elevated. The main question will be the
timing of the rainfall. As of now, it appears that most of
Tuesday evening should be dry (perhaps a couple showers near
Somerset County). Overnight Tuesday rain may begin to develop
over western areas before developing for most areas Wednesday
morning/midday.

Fog and drizzle may accompany rainfall Wednesday night, with fog
being locally dense along the ridges.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The boundary will most likely remain stalled over the Laurel
Highlands Thursday through Thursday night. More rain is likely
across most areas Thursday along with cool temperatures.
Precipitation may diminish late Thursday/Thursday night as high
pressure builds a little closer along with brief upper-level
ridging behind departing low pressure. Fog is possible Thursday
night into Friday morning.

A cold front will most likely pass through Friday before
stalling out to the south for the weekend into early next week.
Showers are possible Friday with the frontal passage. Canadian
high pressure will approach the region for the weekend into
early next week while a series of disturbances track along the
boundary that is stalled to our south. Some frost is possible
during this time, depending on how far south the high can build.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Northwest winds will occasionally gust around 15 to 20 knots
through early this evening. Calm winds overnight could result in
some frost/icing concerns across the northern tier by Tuesday
morning.

Outlook...

Tue...Predominantly VFR.

Tue night...Showers developing late

Wed-Sat...Periods of SHRA with brief low clouds and patchy fog
expected. IFR/subIFR conditions are likely late Wednesday into
Friday. TSRA possible during this time, but overcast
skies/southeast flow should limit thunderstorm potential
somewhat. Possibly a dry period Friday night and early Saturday
morning before more showers affect the airspace.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...Banghoff/Gartner