Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 241848
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
148 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Active Weather continues through Tuesday

- Windy/Very Windy Tonight Through Tuesday

- Low Chance Of Thunderstorms Monday PM

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Dry lower level air has certainly been the rule today, both in
limiting the extent of precipitation this far east, and allowing for
a mixed bag of precipitation in our northwestern counties. Earlier,
after doing some temperature updates to the forecast, our snow
amounts were lowered to around 1 inch in the far northwest, but kept
the advisory going given mixed precip near freezing. Still, we`ve
been looking at DOT cams and plowcams between Waterloo and Cedar
Rapids, and have seen little more than a slushy accumulation on
bridge decks and highways in our northwest buffer areas near
Blackhawk county as of 130 PM. Will continue the advisory until a
transition to rain occurs and roads are in good shape, which should
be this afternoon.

Winds today have largely underperformed, with afternoon
readings 15 to 25 mph, and a few gusts to the mid 30s. Certainly
breezy, but this suggests that we`ll remain below advisory
through tonight.

Tonight, increasing moisture will eventually result in widespread
light rain/drizzle as broad forcing increases ahead of the strong
mid level low and surface low arriving in the Iowa Monday evening.
The combination of surface low/upper low shear, and any CAPE
continues to appear limited to a small area of southwest to south
central Iowa, thus severe chances remain very low Monday. Though
storms look less likely, the negative tilted upper low will bring
very strong lift, and is likely to bring widespread rain to all
locations. The heaviest totals remain focused on the east 1/2 with
PWAT values over 1 inch, and strong forcing supporting amounts of
0.50  to 1.5 where the band of rain persists. This remains something
models are varying on east vs west positioning, but the mean
guidance suggests our central and east will see this
significant QPF, while western areas remain under 0.5. It will
still be wet, but less qpf in the west as we wring out the low
level moisture even after the dry slot moves through later
Monday night.

Looking at winds Monday into Monday evening, there certainly is very
strong winds aloft, but with light non convective rains, and cloud
cover, the wind advisory threat is rather marginal. With widespread
advisories to our south, I did hoist a headline for our southern
areas, where wind gusts over 45 mph would be most possible. This
will run from 7 am to 7 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024


Tuesday morning, there`s growing support for showery cold rains
eventually mixing with snow, on the back side of the strong low
pressure. These would be unpleasant, but with marginally cold
temperatures, should not pose a winter impact threat.

Breezy conditions then continue through Wednesday afternoon as the
system exits the region.

After the cool unsettled weather lasts to Wednesday afternoon, a
warm up to 50s and 60s remains in store for late week and the
weekend. Rain chances are relatively low in this period, of zonal
flow. There could be some passing short wave energy in that period,
but moisture return looks limited in deterministic runs of EC and
GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Windy weather will dominate the upcoming TAF period, as
southeast winds increase through this evening, but remain
generally 18 to 28kts. Tonight, surface winds will remain in
this general range, but winds aloft will be increasing from the
south to southeast to 45-50kts up through the lowest 2 kft. This
LLWS will be found area wide, between 04z and Sunrise (13Z).
Winds Monday morning will recouple, increasing at the surface
from the southeast / south, but with less shear aloft beyond
mechanical turbulence. Cigs will be VFR to start the period,
and much of tonight, as the atmosphere slowly saturates, but by
early this morning, cigs lowering to 1000 ft and light rain
will overspread the entire area. In locations not seeing rain, a
light drizzle will be possible. Rain and some thunder will
continue off an on through Tuesday morning.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for
     IAZ040-051.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin


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