Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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272 ACUS01 KWNS 111249 SWODY1 SPC AC 111247 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...Southwest Texas and central/southeast New Mexico... An upper-level low over the Southwest Deserts will progress generally eastward, evolving into a positive-tilt upper wave as it crosses the Four Corners region through tonight. A stalled front near the Mexico/New Mexico mountains will slowly move/redevelop northeastward, with moist low-level upslope flow across the Rio Grande region, Transpecos, and into the interior New Mexico mountains and higher terrain. In these areas, surface dewpoints will generally range from upper 40s/lower 50s across New Mexico to lower/middle 60s F southeastward toward the Texas Edwards Plateau/Rio Grande vicinity. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will exist atop this relatively moist boundary layer, contributing to potentially 500 J/kg MLCAPE across interior New Mexico and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across far west/southwest Texas. The potential persistence of multi-layer cloud cover east/northeast of the mountains/higher terrain should spatially relegate the potential for surface-based storms to the more immediate near-mountain areas, Transpecos, and Rio Grande vicinity. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible where adequate destabilization does occur. At least isolated storms are forecast to develop this afternoon in the aforementioned upslope/differential-heating favored areas. The environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that develop, especially across the Transpecos, with severe hail possible as far north as northern New Mexico in a more modest instability regime. Some stronger wind gusts may also occur, and a brief tornado is possible. Additional storms could develop eastward across the Rio Grande during the evening. Storms will otherwise trend more elevated this evening as they progress eastward away from higher terrain. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected into the afternoon in association with a southeastward-moving cold front, ahead of a clipper-type shortwave trough. The near-frontal preceding air mass will only be modestly moist (40s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited. However, sufficient heating and destabilization may allow for a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or gusty winds. While organized severe storms do not appear overly likely, this potential will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/11/2024 $$