634
FNUS22 KWNS 191934
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ...

The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area
north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions
are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this
area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly
receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today).
Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the
previous discussion below.

..Weinman.. 05/19/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/

...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical
shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass
(near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this
stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively
easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central
Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on
Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest
fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be
needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry
significantly in the next 36 hours.

Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to
moist fuels and high relative humidity.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$