Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 262349
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
549 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Scattered rain and snow showers expected today into the evening
will move out of the area tonight. A warm up will quickly occur
with 5 to 10 degrees of warming through Thursday when the area
will be back to normal or slightly above for this time of the
year. The next weather system will move into the area Sunday with
winds and dust being the main impact. Rain and winds will move
into the area Sunday night into Monday with light accumulations
expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Main impacts today will be from the scattered rain and snow
showers pushing through the area associated with a mid level
trough.There is just enough SBCAPE to allow a scattering of
storms, but not real boundary to focus on, leading to the shotgun
appearance on radar. In the higher elevations these showers could
come with bursts of snow and temporary whiteout conditions, so
driving could be difficult for short periods. The spotty nature of
these storms will make snowfall accumulations difficult, but it
won`t take but a few in the same spot to quickly get 2-4",
especially above 7500ft where the ground is below freezing which
is what led us to issue the short fused winter advisory to account
for these bursts of snow and lower visibility.The lowlands may
experience brief downpours and periods of graupel looking at the
soundings and cold pocket aloft. This could cause minor issues if
the graupel starts to accumulate for a short period.

The long wave trough will quickly push east, allowing a strong
ridge to build into the area Wednesday. The main impact from this
feature will be the quick warm up that will occur. We will gain
5-8 degrees a day through Friday when highs in the lowlands get
back into the lower 80s which will be slightly above average.
Winds look to remain relatively light for this time of the year.

The pattern shifts quickly over the weekend with a deep low
digging into southern California. This low will bring higher winds
on Saturday, but still looking sub-advisory level. Sunday will be
the day to watch for another wind/dust event. NBM probabilities
are still showing the 75th percentile (which has verified well
with our recent wind storms) at advisory level with warning level
on the eastern slopes. The deterministic models are not as
bullish, so we will have to watch this trend going into the end of
the week. The pacific front will push through Monday which will
provide a chance for showers and windy conditions to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Generally VFR conditions, but not without some brief periods of
potential MVFR conditions due to convective activity across the
region through 03-05Z. A vigorous upper level disturbance, with
just enough moisture, is passing over the region with scattered
SHRA and a even ISOLD TSRA. KELP is most likely to be impacted
with some lowering of clouds, and possibly a CIG, along with brief
rain that could limit VSBY to 1-3 SM. Potential for pcpn looks to
end btwn 03-05Z. Otherwise winds W to WNW 15-25kts with gusts
30-35kts through 03Z...then decreasing to 10-15kts with gusts
15-22kts. Skies will begin to clear aft 03Z. Winds tomorrow, aft
18Z from WNW in the 15-25kt range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Fire weather conditions look to remain unfavorable through
Thursday with either the RH being high or the winds being low
during the period. Friday the winds may pick up enough with
marginally low RH to cause some elevated risk in the Gila region.
The lowlands will have the RH, but not the winds for any real
concerns. All the ingredients do possibly set up for a fire risk
day Sunday when the stronger winds match up with the lower RH
values, mainly west of the Rio Grande.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  43  69  44  80 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            36  61  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               37  69  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               31  62  36  73 /  20   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               19  36  24  49 /  40   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    34  63  37  73 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              28  55  35  66 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                   33  66  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                31  62  34  75 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       39  67  44  78 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City                33  65  32  79 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             36  67  37  82 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               33  60  39  72 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   38  67  40  82 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             36  65  38  77 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           41  66  43  76 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            32  65  34  74 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    33  67  34  77 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 37  65  39  76 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                33  63  36  74 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  27  51  29  64 /  30   0   0   0
Mescalero                23  49  28  60 /  30   0   0   0
Timberon                 22  49  27  62 /  20   0   0   0
Winston                  28  55  31  67 /  20   0   0   0
Hillsboro                31  62  35  72 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                31  63  33  73 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             22  54  28  64 /  20   0   0   0
Hurley                   28  60  32  70 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                    29  62  34  72 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek               29  58  34  67 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                  29  60  36  69 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   31  64  34  77 /  10   0   0   0
Hachita                  32  64  36  77 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           32  65  37  77 /  10   0   0   0
Cloverdale               32  60  39  71 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ415-
     426.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird


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