649
FNUS74 KEPZ 291943
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Collins Park RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
143 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on April 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry west flow will persist over the region all week. No significant
wind makers to pass this week. The dry pattern will keep skies mostly
clear for the week, with no precipitation, and very low RH. RH will
decrease through the week, with single-digit afternoons and poor
overnight recoveries. Temperatures will warm through midweek, with
daily highs rising above the daily averages. Winds will be mostly
light in the overnight and mornings, with west to southwest winds
each afternoon. Afternoon winds will become breezy in the mid and
late week afternoons. Fire weather conditions will be typical spring
dry and somewhat elevated due to persistent warmth and dryness.


.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....70-74.
Min humidity........10-14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......8400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (41000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (129100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........1      1      4      3      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............52     64     68     73     71
RH..............31     17     15     11     12
20 ft wind......W 7    W 7    W 9    SW 12  SW 12
20 ft wind gust.16     16     20     21     21
Mix hgt (ft)....3400   7400   7400   8400   8400
Transport wind..W 14   W 17   W 17   W 17   W 17
Haines index....2      2      4      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..41     110    110    129    129
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....40-44.
Max humidity........38-41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 11 mph with gusts to
                    around 22 mph in the evening and overnight
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (110800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (5100 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........5      5      5      3      3      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............69     59     53     50     46     42
RH..............13     21     26     30     34     39
20 ft wind......SW 11  SW 11  SW 7   SW 5   SW 5   SW 3
20 ft wind gust.22     22     15     9      9      7
Mix hgt (ft)....6900   6900   500    500    500    500
Transport wind..W 17   W 17   W 12   W 12   W 10   W 10
Haines index....5      4      4      4      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..111    111    5      5      5      5
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....71-75.
Min humidity........09-12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 8 to 17 mph with
                    gusts to around 25 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......8400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 11 to 20 mph increasing to around 24 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (43100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (140000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (179900
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........3         2         3         2
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............41        53        67        72
RH..............41        27        14        10
20 FT wind......SW 3G7    SW 8G13   SW 12G20  SW 15G25
Mix hgt (ft)....3300      3300      7300      8400
Transport wind..W 11      W 11      W 20      W 24
Haines index....3         2         4         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..43        43        140       180
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      FAIR      VYGD      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds around
9 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs around 70. Southwest winds
around 9 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Southwest winds around 9 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BIRD
Requested by...Silver City Dispatch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412708.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov