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Spot Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 181505
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek Rx...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
905 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
It will be another warm and dry today as temperatures climb well
above normal. Min RH values will drop to around 10. Drainage winds
will continue for the next hour or so, before switching to the
southwest. Timing of the switch is a little uncertain. Wind speeds
are expected to top out 10 to 15 MPH this afternoon before
decreasing again this evening and switching to drainage overnight.
Skies will start mostly clear, but cirrus will increase throughout
the day. Vent rates will peak in the very good category. A small
increase in wind and temperatures are expected for Friday.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light northwest winds becoming southwest 9 to 12 mph
late morning to early afternoon.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 19 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (31600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (110800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15  15  15  24  24  24  32  32  32
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............63  66  68  71  72  74  74  75  73
RH..............17  14  13  12  12  11  11  11  11
20 FT wind dir..NW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..4   4   6   10  10  10  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.8   8   10  20  20  20  23  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  17  17  17  17  19  19  19  19
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..32  91  91  91  91  111 111 111 111
Ventrate Cat....PR  GD  GD  GD  GD  VGD VGD VGD VGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 23 mph decreasing to around 5 mph after
                    3 am.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (92700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........46  46  46  44  44  44  68  68  68  72  72  72
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............73  70  63  61  59  58  58  58  58  57  57  56
RH..............10  11  15  16  17  19  19  19  19  21  21  21
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  W   NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.23  23  23  14  14  14  12  12  12  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.16  16  16  16  10  10  10  10  11  11  11  11
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..93  93  93  93  4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  GD  GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 7 to 14 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......10000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 8 mph increasing to southwest
                    20 to 24 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (18200 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (165800 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........75  75  75  56  56  56  11  11  11  7   7   7
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............55  57  59  64  68  71  74  76  77  77  77  77
RH..............22  21  22  18  16  14  12  11  10  10  9   9
20 FT wind dir..N   NW  NW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   7   7   7   13  13  13  14  14  14
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  17  17  17  24  24  24  26  26  26
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   8   20  20  20  20  24  24  24  24
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18  18  18  18  166 166 166 166 204 204 204 204
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West
winds around 9 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West
winds around 9 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper 70s. Southeast
winds around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...FEMO t
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410979.3/EPZ
.DELDT 04/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
