664
FNUS74 KEPZ 282027
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek Rx...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
227 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on April 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Deep dry westerly flow will persist over the Gila through the week,
with the storm track staying well north. This means a generally
sunny week, with no precipitation chances, and very low, and
decreasing RH each afternoon, with poor overnight recoveries.
Temperatures will warm through midweek, with daily highs above the
daily averages. Winds will favor light overnight and mornings, with
west to southwest winds each afternoon. Lighter winds early in the
week will be somewhat breezy in the mid and late week afternoons.
Fire weather conditions will be typical spring dry and somewhat
elevated due to persistent warmth and dryness, but fall short of
critical due to no expected strong wind events.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....70-73.
Min humidity........13-17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 6 mph early, then shifting
                    to the southwest 8 to 11 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the southwest 9
                    to 13 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (31400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (99300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      0      1      1      2
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............51     60     67     71     72
RH..............37     27     20     16     14
20 ft wind......N 6    E 5    SW 8   SW 8   SW 11
20 ft wind gust.13     12     17     17     20
Mix hgt (ft)....5200   7100   7100   8100   8100
Transport wind..N 9    SW 9   SW 9   W 13   W 13
Haines index....2      2      2      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..31     68     68     99     99
Ventrate Cat....POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....46-49.
Max humidity........32-35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 5 to 6 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (91500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........4      4      2      2      2      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............69     61     57     54     50     47
RH..............15     20     21     24     27     31
20 ft wind......W 10   W 10   NW 6   NW 5   NW 5   NW 6
20 ft wind gust.20     20     13     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....7000   7000   500    500    500    500
Transport wind..W 14   W 14   NW 9   NW 9   NW 9   NW 9
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..92     92     4      4      4      4
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....73-76.
Min humidity........11-14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the west
                    10 to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (65200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (141800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........3         2         1         2
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............48        59        70        75
RH..............34        25        16        12
20 FT wind......NW 6G13   W 8G18    W 10G21   W 12G22
Mix hgt (ft)....4100      4100      7700      8600
Transport wind..NW 14     NW 14     W 17      W 18
Haines index....2         2         3         4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..65        65        105       142
Ventrate Cat....GOOD      GOOD      VYGD      VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds
around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds
around 12 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest
winds around 11 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BIRD
Requested by...FEMO t
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410979.12/EPZ
.DELDT 04/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov