852
FXUS62 KFFC 270100
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
900 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

High pressure to the NE, driving NE flow, continues to strengthen
the wedge through the overnight hours. Ridge development to the west
associated with a planes trough and sfc low will drive isentropically
lifted moisture into the area. This may cause some light sprinkles
along the GA/AL border this afternoon. Accumulations will be
trace at best. Otherwise, cloud coverage across North and West GA
can be expected.

Surface winds will remain from the SE outside the wedge and ENE
inside the wedge. Winds may be lightly gusty, with gusts up to 20
mph not out of the question. Windiest conditions can be expected
further to the northwest, where the pressure gradient is greater,
and at higher elevations.

Overnight, cloud coverage continues with the developing wedge. Should
wake up to fairly thick lower clouds. Conditions through the rest of
tomorrow will remain dry and warm. Highs today and tomorrow will be
in the high 70s to low 80s across the region. Lows around 60 given
the cloud cover.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Key Messages:

 - The warmest weather of 2024 thus far is expected next week.

 - There is a 45 to 50 percent chance of a high temperatures at
   or above 90 degrees in the Atlanta Metro next Thursday.

 - Isolated thunderstorms could occur next week, but widespread
   rainfall is unlikely at this time.

The Warmest Temperatures of the Year so far Arrive Next Week:

Upper level ridging will dominate over the Eastern U.S. and
Southeast next week. The signal in the GEFS and EPS guidance
indicating the ridge will maintain it`s presence over the Southeast
through early May has been strong and consistent over multiple model
runs. As such, forecaster confidence in the warming trend is remains
high. At this time it looks like the warmth will peak next
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. During this period the odds of high
temperatures reaching 90 degrees are the 30 to 60 percent range
along and south of Interstate 85. In the Atlanta Metro, the odds of
90 degree temperatures peaks in the 45 to 50 percent range on
Thursday. High temperatures in the upper 80s are favored north of
Interstate 85. Surface dewpoints look like they will be near 60
degrees next week. This will add to the heat index, but it won`t
have the region feeling full blown summer humidity just yet.
Isolated thunderstorm activity over the course of the week could
locally reduce temperatures any day after Monday.

Rain Chances, Sunday through Friday:

The large scale synoptic pattern next week (upper level ridge in the
east and a series of troughs tracking through the Plains) will leave
the Southeast largely devoid of strong/defined forcing for
precipitation. Thus any rain or thunderstorm activity in Georgia
next week should be dependent on diurnal heating and/or weaker
shortwaves migrating eastward over the ridge. Due to this scenario
confidence in the timing or coverage of any precipitation next week
is low. This lower confidence is reflected in the GEFS and EPS,
who`s individual members exhibit a blotchy pattern of precipitation
chances next week. For now our forecast focuses on the potential (10
to 40 percent) for thunderstorms in north Georgia Monday and Tuesday
with an initial weak shortwave. After that our highest precipitation
chances (10 to 25 percent) are diurnally driven. The total rainfall
through next week should be 0.25 inches or less for most of the
region (See the WPC 7 Day QPF forecast).

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
VFR conditions to start with increasing clouds and MVFR ceilings
moving in over night. Will see ceilings lift back into the VFR
range by 18-20z Sat. Winds will stay out of the E to SE in the
6-12kt range. No precipitation expected or restrictions to VSBYs
expected.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on ceilings.
Confidence high on all other elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  78  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         61  78  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     55  71  55  74 /  10  10   0   0
Cartersville    61  79  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        65  83  63  84 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     59  76  58  78 /   0  10   0   0
Macon           62  82  60  82 /  10  10   0   0
Rome            61  80  60  82 /   0  10   0   0
Peachtree City  62  80  59  82 /   0  10   0   0
Vidalia         62  82  62  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...01