000
FXUS62 KFFC 260534
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
134 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

 - A wedge front will bring slightly cooler temperatures to
   northeast Georgia Friday.

 - Despite a couple of isolated showers, the majority of the
   region should be dry Friday.

Through Friday:

A surface high taking up residence over the Northeast will drive a
wedge front south through the Carolinas tonight. By Friday morning
the wedge front should have moved through the Athens area, and this
will set up northeastern Georgia for cooler temperatures Friday
afternoon. Afternoon highs in the region should be in the low to mid
70s, which would be 3 to 5 degrees below seasonal averages. The
westward progression of the wedge front Friday afternoon is the main
driver of uncertainty in the forecast. Some of the CAM guidance
pushes the front through the Atlanta metro, with other guidance
holding it back to the east. Thus our potential range of high
temperatures in the Metro is fairly broad Friday afternoon. Highs
could be anywhere between 73 and 81 degrees. We could also end up
with a fairly sharp temperature divide (by Georgia standards) if the
front sets up over the Metro.

The vast majority of the region should remain dry on Friday. This
being said, there are two potential features that could drive some
isolated light precipitation over the course of the day. The first
will be a weak shortwave tacking through northern Georgia and
Tennessee Friday morning. Guidance from the HREF tosses out 10 to
40% probabilities for precipitation with this wave north of
Interstate 20. Forecast soundings from the CAMs indicate a
substantial dry layer below 750 MB as this wave moves through. This
should hinder the ability of any precipitation to reach the surface
and result in the best rain chances (~25%) occurring at higher
elevations. As we move into Friday afternoon and evening the driving
force for any precipitation should become a weak area of convergence
along the leading edge of the wedge front. Forecaster confidence in
rain shower activity is low due to expected surface dewpoints near
60 degrees and the potential for high cloud cover to limit
instability. Never the less some of the CAMs (particularly the HRRR)
are indicating isolated convective showers between Atlanta and
Columbus between 3 PM and 9 PM Friday (~15% chance). If showers do
develop they should be brief in nature.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Taking a look at the extended outlook starting Saturday morning. A
deep trough continues to dig across the planes with strong ridging
out ahead of it, stretching from the Ohio River Valley and East
Coast Southward to the Florida Panhandle. This ridging will help to
amplify the already strong Bermuda High and spread eastward,
undercutting the trough and sending it northward. What this means
for the area will be warm to hot conditions with highs climbing into
the mid 80s to low 90s by mid next week.

The dominating feature through next week will be the Northwest
flow pattern we became all too familiar with last summer.
Conditions overall should remain mostly dry through Tuesday, when
greater moisture (PWATS >1.5") moves into the area. Current model
spread remains high due to the complex undercutting high pressure
set up, however we will need to keep an eye out for CAPE on
Tuesday given the flow pattern, moisture availability, and
shortwave energy. Thunderstorms in this type of set up frequently
organize into MCS style features and the limiting factor will be
the CAPE. Current ensembles indicate about a 40-60% chance of
SFCCAPE >500 J/KG and less than 15% chance SFCCAPE >1000 J/KG. For
right now will expect just general scattered thunderstorms across
North and Northwest GA. Wednesday will likely be similar to
Tuesday with thunderstorms continuing with the passing upper level
shortwave.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

BKN mid level clouds currently are filtering into the area which
are expected to stick around through the overnight. Wedge begins
to build in this morning affecting ATL as early as 17-18z as CIGs
lower to BKN050 before lifting in the evening. Expecting lower
clouds to start building in overnight tomorrow at BKN025. Gusty
winds from the E/SE up to 20kt are also possible beginning
tomorrow afternoon and continuing through the overnight tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on CIGs tomorrow afternoon with wedge.
Medium to high on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  78  57  79 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         61  79  59  80 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     55  71  54  74 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    61  80  59  81 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        64  83  62  83 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     60  76  59  77 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           61  83  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            61  81  59  82 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  61  81  59  81 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         62  82  62  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Hernandez