390
FXUS64 KFWD 071918
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
218 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 202 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024/
/Through Wednesday night/

An unseasonably warm day is taking shape this Tuesday as
temperature rise into the mid-upper 80s. Latest surface analysis
shows a weak cold front moving across North Texas, and while it is
bringing drier air, temperatures won`t change much as highs are
expected to peak in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. The front
will likely diffuse as it becomes nearly stationary over our area,
so half of our CWA will enjoy the dewpoints in the 30s/40s and
the other half will stay in the 60s/70s. Winds will return to the
south this afternoon but will stay light.

While dry and mostly clear conditions will continue for most of
us today, a few isolated storms may develop across western Central
Texas this evening. If storms are able to develop near/south of
the diffuse front, they may become severe with large hail and
damaging wind gusts. They should be short-lived and diminish by
9-10pm. Otherwise, mostly tranquil conditions are expected
tonight other than low clouds returning to our area early
Wednesday morning. This will keep morning lows in the 60s and 70s.

As advertised over the last several days, the weather pattern
will be active on Wednesday as another dryline/cold front
approaches from the north. While there is a low chance (<10%) of
showers and isolated storms late morning or early afternoon, the
main storm event will still evolve in the late afternoon and
evening. Scattered storms are expected to develop along the
surface boundary, especially along/east of I-35 and along/north of
I-20. Some of these storms will be severe given the highly
unstable environment (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). While very large
hail and damaging winds are the main threats, we can`t rule out a
tornado or two. The main window to pay attention will be between
4-9 pm as most of the activity should be east of our area after
that. Storms may be fairly discrete at first and eventually merge
into a cluster as they move across northeast/east Texas. Rain
chances decrease after midnight with quiet conditions persisting
overnight.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday and Beyond/

Weak surface low pressure will shift across the Ohio River Valley
Thursday with a trailing cold front extending into portions of
East and Central Texas. This frontal boundary will serve as a
focus for scattered thunderstorm development Thursday
afternoon/evening (not everyone will see storms!) as it gradually
pushes toward the Texas Gulf Coast. 7.5-8.0 degreeC/km mid-level
lapse rates atop a very moist airmass marked by surface dewpoints
in the low to mid-70s will lead to strong instability ahead of the
frontal boundary with 3000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE by Thursday afternoon
across much of Central Texas. 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear
will allow for organized storm structures capable of producing
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Weak low-level flow will
likely keep the tornado threat low. The greatest storm chances
will remain along/south of the I-20 corridor Thursday afternoon
into early Thursday evening until the cold front finally pushes
out of our forecast area late Thursday evening. We will also need
to monitor the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding, especially since the bulk of this rainfall is expected
to fall over already water-logged areas across Central and East
Texas.

Northerly low-level flow behind the frontal boundary will usher in
a drier, cooler airmass, allowing for a nice start to the weekend
with highs in the mid-70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the
mid-50s to low 60s expected Friday and Saturday.

Onshore flow will return to North and Central Texas by Sunday
beginning a gradual increase in low-level moisture and cloud
cover. Isolated to scattered rain chances could return to the
region by early Sunday across our west and south on the nose of
this stronger warm/moist advection, especially as a mid-level
disturbance approaches from the west. An active subtropical jet
overtop sufficient moisture will keep at least daily low to medium
chances for rain through the midweek period across North and
Central Texas. Limited instability will likely keep the severe
threat on the lower end through at least Monday, but we will need
to assess this potential further as we get closer to the weekend.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 109 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Low cigs early Wednesday morning, convective potential
Wednesday afternoon.

VFR conditions will prevail the rest of the day and most of the
night before another round of low clouds/MVFR cigs return to the
region around 07-08Z. While the majority of the IFR ceilings are
expected to stay across portions of East/Central TX, there is a
medium-high chance KACT will see IFR conditions between 11-15Z.
Clouds will eventually scatter out by early afternoon as a weak
cold front moves through. Winds will shift from northwesterly to
south-southeasterly in the next few hours, but will remain light
through tonight. They are forecast to increase tomorrow morning to
around 12-18 kt gusting to 25 kt.

A few isolated storms may develop across western Central Texas
and move near KACT this evening, but probability/confidence
remain low to mention any thunder at this time. For tomorrow
afternoon, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop
near an approaching cold front in North Texas. The highest
chances remain to the north-northeast of the DFW Metroplex sites,
but one or two storms may impact some of the eastern sites
(KDFW, KDAL, and KGKY). Given the uncertainties on timing and
coverage, the current forecast didn`t introduce any VCTS at this
time. This will need to be monitored during future TAFs updates.

Sanchez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  91  67  81  62 /   5  20  10  30  20
Waco                72  89  71  82  62 /  10  20  10  40  20
Paris               69  85  63  81  59 /  10  30  30  30  20
Denton              69  90  63  81  58 /   0  10  10  20  10
McKinney            70  89  64  80  59 /   5  30  20  30  10
Dallas              73  91  67  82  62 /   5  20  10  30  20
Terrell             72  87  67  82  60 /  10  20  20  30  20
Corsicana           74  87  71  84  62 /  10  20  20  40  20
Temple              72  89  70  84  62 /  20   5   5  40  10
Mineral Wells       69  91  63  80  58 /   0   0   5  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$