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000
FXUS64 KFWD 122343
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
643 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening Through Tomorrow/

A pleasant spring day has given way to a fantastic evening with
temperatures hanging around the upper 70s and low 80s across North
and Central Texas. Southerly flow and moisture return will keep
overnight lows quite mild, with temperatures gradually falling
into the mid to upper 50s and low 60s. A steady stream of cirrus
will continue to move overhead through tomorrow morning ahead of
our next system that is currently deepening along the southern
Rockies. Wind speeds will stay around 10 to 15 mph overnight,
increasing through tomorrow with a few locations gusting upwards
of 30 to 35 mph. Afternoon highs tomorrow will range in the upper
70s and low to mid 80s once again across the region, kicking off
the weekend with absolutely beautiful weather.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 226 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/
/Sunday and Beyond/

Moist, southerly low-level flow will increase by Sunday ahead of a
deepening upper-level low over the western CONUS. By Monday,
breezy southerly winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 35 mph at times
will help usher in mid-60s surface dewpoints across much of the
Southern Plains. As the upper low shifts into the Plains,
thunderstorm activity is expected to develop late Monday afternoon
and evening along a dryline laid out across portions of the Texas
Panhandle and West Texas, well west and northwest of the FWD
forecast area. A Pacific front will eventually overtake this
dryline, pushing the thunderstorm activity east into North Texas
late Monday evening into Monday night.

Weak capping, sufficient instability, and forecasted wind profiles
will likely support more discrete, supercellular storm structures
initially off the dryline late Monday afternoon. It is uncertain
exactly how this activity will evolve as it shifts east toward
North Texas late Monday evening, but the overall environment is
not particularly supportive of widespread severe weather. Current
guidance continues to suggest that SBCIN will increase Monday
night over North Texas as we remain south and east of the greatest
synoptic- scale ascent associated with the upper-level low. This
would lead us to assume that any thunderstorm activity will take
on a weakening trend once it enters our forecast area, with the
greatest chances for strong to severe storms across our far
western Big Country counties. If convection is able to remain more
discrete as it enters western North Texas, hail would be the
primary hazard. However, if thunderstorms grow upscale into a
line/broken line of thunderstorms, damaging winds would be more of
a concern. Although an increasing low-level jet Monday
evening/night is leading to some curvature in the forecasted
hodographs, limited low-level instability will likely keep the
tornado threat on the low end. Nevertheless, continue to pay close
attention to the forecast over the next few days as we further
refine timing/location/hazard specifics.

The bulk of the thunderstorm activity should be shifting into East
Texas by midday Tuesday. This system will not be a big rain-maker
with most locations seeing less than 0.25". A brief period of
warm, dry weather will take place midweek behind this system with
afternoon highs rising into the mid-80s to mid-90s by Wednesday.
Ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to highlight the
passage of a strong cold front on Thursday bringing cooler
temperatures and rain chances back to North and Central Texas.
Depending on the speed of this frontal passage, there may be a
window of opportunity for a couple strong to severe storms across
our Central Texas counties late Thursday. High temperatures in the
60s to low 70s are looking more probable Friday into next weekend
behind this frontal boundary.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...None at this time.

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
period. Southerly winds will gradually diminish to around 10 knots
later this evening before ramping up once again as the low level
jet becomes established through the early morning hours.

Occasionally dense cirrus will continue moving overhead through
tomorrow with wind speeds increasing to around 15 to 20 knots.
Occasional gusts up to 30 knots will be possible across the D10
and Waco through the afternoon hours tomorrow.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  82  63  84  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                57  81  62  81  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               54  79  60  80  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              56  81  60  84  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            57  81  61  82  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              60  83  63  84  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             56  79  61  81  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           57  81  62  83  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              56  81  62  82  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       56  83  60  86  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$