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000
FXUS65 KGGW 130855
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
255 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- High temperatures well above normal through the weekend with a
  few isolated convective rain showers and thunderstorms.

- Pattern change next week, with much colder temperatures and
  mixed precipitation by Tuesday, then some snowfall potential
  through midweek.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Under an otherwise large and strong upper-level ridge of high
pressure, some subtle, embedded, short-wave disturbances will
give rise to some scattered rain showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms for limited locations across northeast Montana,
mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours over the next 3
days. A cold storm system from the Canadian Rockies will bring a
change in the weather pattern next week to our region, with some
late season winter weather impacts possible. Model changes
continue regarding this system which will impact the precipitation
amounts.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

With the rapid warming over the next few days, and already dry
conditions, fire weather concerns are on the increase, but the
spring green-up is well underway. Deep atmospheric mixing will
contribute to afternoon gusty winds, but will likely not be
widespread enough nor strong enough for critical fire weather
conditions.

Confidence is diminishing on the evolution of next week`s storm
system, with a wide range of ensemble solutions for timing and
placement and amounts of precipitation. Some significant changes
have lowered the probability for a wetting rain or measurable snow
with the low pressure systems staying to the north or south of the
region. The lowering of snow potential is also impacting the
temperature forecast, with slightly warmer conditions expected.



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Dry conditions continue for the TAF sites scattered mid-
level clouds.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow