Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 142026
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
326 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will end across the area this evening and sunshine
  will return to the entire forecast area Friday.

- High confidence dry weather from Friday through next Wednesday
  with near to above normal temperatures (normal high
  temperatures are in the lower to mid 50s this time of year).

- Despite the overall mild nights of late, a cold front on
  Sunday will bring widespread morning temperatures in the 20s
  to start next week (Monday morning).

- With the anticipated dry and occasionally breezy weather,
  fire weather concerns return to the forecast area on Saturday,
  with the threat continuing each afternoon through at least
  next Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Lots of cloud cover and a few showers lingered across the area
today. Overall, shower coverage has diminished significantly the
past few hours, although some of the short term models indicate
there could be a little resurgence in activity across our
northeastern areas around 00Z, especially for areas north of
I-80 and east of Highway 281. While we could see some weak
additional development shower development, additional rainfall
accumulations should be very light (only a few hundredths of an
inch) with any additional shower activity ending completely by
midnight at the latest.

As the responsible disturbance tracks further east and surface
high pressure begins to settle in from the north, expect a
return to mostly sunny skies and lighter winds across the area
tomorrow. While not overly warm, Friday will still be seasonably
nice, with high temperatures climbing into the middle to upper
50s, which reflects an increase of high temperatures of 1 to 3
degrees from the previous forecast for most locations.

Thereafter...the upper level flow becomes fairly light and
mainly northwesterly as an area of low pressure cuts off across
the desert southwest for several days. A backdoor cold front on
Sunday will likely briefly drop temperatures down to near or
slightly below climo (upper 40s to mid 50s), with a quick
rebound of 5 to 10 degrees to start the new work week Monday as
the aforementioned front shifts back east. That said, could see
a relatively cool start to the work week Monday morning, with
current morning low forecast to be in the lower 20s for most
locations.

Late in the period, the southwestern low will fill and shift
into the southern Plains toward the middle of next week, which
could steer some very modest moisture north towards the local
area by Thursday, with some small pops introduced across our
southeastern areas (10-20%) next Thursday.

Otherwise, with the fairly high confidence dry, seasonably warm
and occasionally breezy conditions expected for the majority of
the period, expect several near-critical to potentially critical
fire weather days across the local area beginning Saturday
afternoon. At this point, despite the cooler temperatures on
Sunday, this looks to be the potentially windiest day as the
cold front from the northeast crosses the local area, and
currently these 25 to 35 MPH winds along with RH values near 25
percent Sunday afternoon, looks to be potentially the most
impactful fire weather day of the period across the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MVFR CIGS will likely prevail through the early evening hours,
eventually improving around 14/03Z. Could still see a VCSH near
KEAR for the next couple of hours, but think precip (outside a
couple of sprinkles) should now be over at KGRI. Clearing skies
can then be expected late in the overnight hours, with gusty
northerly winds to near 25KTS this afternoon gradually
diminishing by evening. Winds should then remain steady near 12
KTS out of the north into the daytime hours Friday as a fairly
tight pressure gradient remains across the local area,
eventually letting up during the mid to late afternoon hours
Friday as surface high pressure settles in from the north.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi


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