Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 271120
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
520 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend begins today and continues over the weekend
  before the next system moves in, bringing precipitation
  chances and cooler temperatures.

- Near critical fire weather conditions looking more likely for
  Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 229 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Early this morning, a mid-level shortwave is moving over the
northeastern CWA causing some snow showers. This will cause a
dusting to maybe 0.5 inches of new snow in locations along and north
of US 24 and east of Kansas highway 27. These snow showers and
flurries will continue until around sunrise. By that time, the
shortwave will have moved out of the area.

Later today, the upper-level trough that has been impacting the
region move out to the east as a ridge moves in. This will lead to
more zonal then southwesterly flow giving us more clear skies.
Surface winds will not mirror the winds aloft today. In the morning,
winds will become northwesterly as the shortwave leaves the region.
High temperatures will warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s, however
locations that still have a large amount of snowpack could be
slightly cooler. Most of the remaining snowpack will likely (~65%)
melt away today.

Scattered showers are possible early this afternoon, mainly south of
US 24 in Kansas. In this area, the wind boundary will stall out and
act as the forcing mechanism. Confidence in precipitation occurring
is low, around 15%, primarily due to differing model guidance on mid-
level moisture availability. Using a RAP sounding, if any showers
were to form, they would be well elevated and with 400+ J/kg of
CAPE, some lightning and thunder could occur. These showers or
storms would start forming around 18Z and dissipate around 0Z.

Overnight, lows will drop into the 20s as winds become southwesterly
and the mostly clear skies lead to efficient cooling. The clear skies
will give a jump start to the warming come Thursday when
temperatures warm into the 60s, potentially even low 70s for the
northwestern CWA. This does come with a cost; RH values will be in
the upper teens leading to elevated fire weather conditions in the
afternoon. Southerly winds gusting up to 25 kts cannot be ruled out,
but the recent moisture will work to slightly reduce available
fuels. By 0Z Friday, the upper-level ridge axis will be moving over
the CWA leading to more mostly clear skies! The southwesterly breeze
should help us stay in the 30s overnight Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Southwest flow aloft will be in place over the central plains
Friday through Sunday ahead of trough located over the
southwestern CONUS. A couple of embedded waves in the flow will
bring low chances for light rain showers mainly in southwest
Nebraska Friday night and again on Saturday night. Impacts, if
any, appear minimal at this time. Highs will be in the 60s and
70s on Friday, cool slightly into the 50s and 60s on Saturday,
then warming again on Sunday to the 60s and 70s. Afternoon
relative humidity minimums will fall below 20 percent in west
and southwest parts of the area both Friday and Sunday. However,
wind gust spreads from the NBM shows higher percentile gusts of
less 20 mph on Friday which would not meet critical fire
weather criteria. The wind gust spread on Sunday is between 25
and 35 mph suggesting a risk of reaching critical fire weather
criteria Sunday afternoon in the area south of Interstate 70 and
west of Highway 25.

For Monday and Tuesday, the western trough will finally emerge
over the central plains bringing cooler temperatures, breezy
conditions and a chance for rain and snow. Models are in poor
agreement at this point with the details. Operational GFS is
quite bullish with snow and wind because it cuts off a 500 mb
low on Monday near the area. However, the ECMWF keeps the system
an open wave and on a track further south which misses the area
entirely. Ensembles support the ECMWF solution at this time,
but confidence is low on whether or not this will bring another
round of snow or graze the area as it moves just south. Either
way, should see cooler temperatures both days, but how cold will
ultimately depend on whether or not the precipitation is
realized. For now, NBM mean has highs in the 50s and lows in the
20s both days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to return and prevail at both KGLD
and KMCK for the 12Z TAF period. Winds will start out from the
southwest early in the period and become northwesterly this
morning. In the evening, winds will become more southerly and
remain this way. Gusts at both sites today could occasionally
reach 20 kts, but under 15 kts is generally expected. Starting
around 6Z patchy fog may form, but confidence is less than 15%
that this will occur.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA


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