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000
FXUS63 KGLD 132253
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
453 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect for several counties south of I-70
  Today.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the entire area on
  Monday.

- Monday is forecast to be a multi-hazard day, including
  critical fire weather, blowing dust, and strong to severe
  thunderstorms.

- Strong northwest winds Tuesday, potentially up around 50 kts
  gusts. Blowing dust is also possible for most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 127 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Mostly clear skies are present this afternoon as broad upper level
ridging remains over the area with west-southwesterly flow aloft. As
of 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT), temperatures are ranging in the upper 70s to
near 90. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for south-southwestern
parts of the area, including Cheyenne county in Colorado and
Wallace, Logan, Greeley, and Wichita counties in Kansas. Starting to
see some cu developing to our west with a shortwave trough expected
to move through later this afternoon-evening that will shift flow
west-northwesterly and give silent to slight chance showers (up to
~15%) for parts of the area; no accumulation expected. Overnight,
temperatures are forecast to fall into the low 40s to low 50s.

Going into Sunday, upper level ridging continues with zonal flow
becoming southwesterly during the evening to overnight hours. 850 mb
temperatures to around 20-25C will again place afternoon highs in
the 80s area wide with a few 90s possible. While minimum RH falls to
15% or less across much of the area, winds again are a limiting
factor to achieve critical fire weather conditions, so continuing
with no highlights for this period. Forecast lows fall into the 40s
to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The long term period remains largely dictated by the upper low
and surface low system that move through the area Monday and
Tuesday.

Monday has fairly good agreement on the positioning of the upper low
and surface low. The upper low is forecast to move through the Four
Corners region on Monday with the surface low taking shape along the
Palmer divide and moving to around the CO border by the late
afternoon and early evening hours. As the surface low takes shape,
winds will strengthen from the south with sustained speeds around 20-
30 mph and gusts to 45-50 mph. Winds likely wouldn`t get any
stronger during the day Monday unless the surface low deepened more
and faster compared to what is forecast. With he strong southerly
winds, dry air is forecast to advect into the area. Combined with
the very warm air over the area (850mb temps around 25C allowing
surface temperatures around 85 to 90), relative humidity is forecast
to drop into the teens and single digits. This will allow for
critical fire weather conditions across most of the area. A
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the entire area. The main
uncertainty is the RH for eastern and northern portions of the
area as any sort of moisture return would keep RH higher and out
of critical conditions (fires would still be bad with the winds
and lack of precipitation). However, current guidance is
favoring mostly southerly winds which will limit moisture return
and keep most of the area dry. This would also hinder any
chance for severe weather later in the day along the front or
dryline. Current guidance is forecasting a very dry air column
with no moisture for storms to work with. If moisture did move
in, either at the surface or in the low to mid levels, then
severe storm chances would increase with the presence of surface
boundaries and effective shear around 40-60 kts. Large to very
large hail would be the main threat with any severe storm. The
issue too with any severe storms that form is that they would be
after dark late Monday into very early Tuesday.

Tuesday morning and beyond is where the forecast gets a bit less
certain. The overall pattern of the system moving out of the area
during the morning hours and the upper trough swinging through is
still on track. The issue is how fast and how far north these
features track. The farther they get away from the area during the
day, the lesser the impacts will be to the area as the pressure
gradient would weaken. Winds would be at more of a nuisance
level, blowing dust would be unlikely or very limited, and
precipitation wouldn`t wrap into the area. However, if the low
system stays close to the area during the day, the area would
see strong wrap around flow in a higher pressure gradient which
would allow for high winds potentially (sustained 40+ and gusts
60+). With the stronger winds, the blowing dust potential would
increase on the back side of the system unless precipitation
managed to wrap in and wet the dust down. However, precipitation
could also kick up dust if a strong outflow preceded the
precipitation. With ensemble guidance still favoring faster
solutions, chances for the the more impactful scenario are
around 20-30%. Temperatures would likely be cooler, but still in
the 60`s and 70`s.

After Tuesday, the overall pattern is forecast to transition into
more of a broad trough. However, the lower heights and higher
surface pressure may not move in until Thursday while the main
trough axis over the Northern part of the CONUS swings through.
Wednesday would then remain fairly warm in the 60`s and 70`s and
precipitation would be possible if most of the moisture did not
advect out of the area with the prior system passage. Thursday and
Friday, high temperatures are forecast to be in the 50`s with a
colder air mass over the area and the broad trough aloft. With this,
low temperatures are forecast to lower back below freezing to end
the work week. Precipitation chances look to be low with the high
pressure over the area, but will have to see if any higher moisture
can move through the flow into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 449 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Deep mixing across the area is leading to sporadic gusts up to
20 knots at each terminal so have included a tempo to include
that potential through 01Z when the nocturnal inversion sets in.
Winds will then back overnight and into the day Sunday; perhaps
being more variable at times at KMCK. Each terminal have
included a 06G20kt as deep inverted v soundings will be present
again with relatively the same, if not weaker wind profile as
this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for southern and southwestern
portions of the area this afternoon due to low RH and wind gusts up
to around 25-30 mph.

For tomorrow, elevated fire weather conditions are forecast as
relative humidity again drops into the teens with temperatures in the
80s to low 90s. Limiting factor for critical fire weather remains in
persistence of the winds as gusts generally below 20 mph are
expected.

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued area-wide for Monday as
southerly winds gust up to around 45 mph and RH falls as low as 5%.
Monday is also shaping up to be a potential multi-hazard day where
critical fire weather conditions won`t be the only concern. Blowing
dust and associated reductions to visibility may also occur. Additionally,
there is potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly
in the evening-overnight hours, and lightning could initiate
fires. Lastly, a cold front will sweep through the area, with
current timing of the wind shift from south-southwest to
northwest during the overnight timeframe.

On Tuesday, while RH recovers some post cold front, northwesterly
winds gust 50-55 mph, resulting in continued concern for fire
weather, especially if there are any ongoing fires. Blowing dust as
well remains a possible hazard.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 648 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

With some locales possibly coming within a few degrees of near
record highs on Saturday, April 13th, here is the list of records
for this day:
a line from Gove, KS to Benkelman, NE.

Goodland, KS........90F in 2006

McCook, NE..........92F in 1936

Burlington, CO......87F in 2006

Hill City, KS.......92F in 2023


With some locales possibly coming within a few degrees of near
record highs on Sunday, April 14th, here is the list of records
for this day:


Goodland, KS........88F in 2017

McCook, NE..........92F in 1940

Burlington, CO......90F in 2006

Hill City, KS.......94F in 2003

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for COZ252>254.
     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ254.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...