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000
FXUS63 KGLD 130135
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
735 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect for several counties south of I-70
  Saturday.

- Blowing dust possible with critical fire weather conditions
  likely Monday.

- Strong northwest winds and heightened threat for blowing dust
  Tuesday.

- Near critical fire weather conditions south of I-70 Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 729 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Overall forecast remains on track with little changes. Am
watching the potential for some perhaps some smoke to move into
eastern portions of the area (Graham/Norton counties) overnight
and into the morning hours from prescribed burns across Central
Kansas today. The HRRR Near Surface Smoke does indicate some
higher concentrations which may lead to some smokey smell for
some in the morning hours before the nocturnal inversion
dissipates. Also am seeing some signal for brief gusty winds
perhaps around 50 mph with any virga or showers that may
develop during the afternoon hours Saturday as DCAPE looks to be
around 1100 j/kg with inverted v soundings. If this were to
occur the relative favored area would be along and north of
Interstate 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Tonight...mid and high level clouds move across the area from
southwest to northeast. There is a sliver of weak elevated
instability with this batch of clouds, however not enough at this
time to support a precipitation mention. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the lower to middle 40s. A few readings in the 30s
are possible in the vicinity of the Republican River valley where a
period of light winds are expected.

Saturday-Saturday night...weak/broad upper level ridging will be
over the area, ahead of a closed upper low, forecast to move into
Nevada/central California by 12z Sunday. Southwest to northwest
winds of 10 to 20 mph are expected during the day with gusts up to
30 mph. Overnight, west to northwest winds around 10 mph are
currently forecast. High temperatures are forecast to range from
around 79 degrees in Flagler to 90 degrees in the Norton and Hill
City areas. Record/near record high temperatures are possible in
Hill City (92 degrees set in 2023), Colby (87 degrees set in 1936),
Tribune (88 degrees set in 1946) and Yuma (83 degrees set in 2003).
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 40s to around 50.

Sunday-Sunday night...as the upper trough slowly moves east into
Utah by 12z Monday, south to southeasterly surface winds slowly
develop and increase through the day with the higher speeds over far
eastern Colorado. Overnight, occasionally breezy southeast winds are
currently forecast. The current forecast is dry, however,
GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700-500mb relative humidity show a disturbance moving
northeast across the area during the time of peak heating, possibly
supporting some slight chance pops for showers and maybe a
thunderstorm. Something we`ll need to watch for. High temperatures
are forecast to be in the lower 80s to around 90. Record/near record
high temperatures are possible in Goodland (88 degrees set in 2017
and previous years). Low temperatures are forecast to be in the
lower 40s to lower 50s.

Monday-Monday night...this mornings GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEFS models move
the upper low into central Colorado by the end of the day then over
the Tri-State area overnight.

Currently, southeast to southwest winds gusting 35 to 50 mph are
anticipated during the day. Locally developed blowing dust/dust
storm thresholds are being met using the reliable GFS model,
favoring locations either side of a line from Tribune and Leoti
northeast to Trenton and McCook in the 21z-00z timeframe. GEM model,
which also does well, remains just a bit lower on the needed wind
speeds of at least 43kts in the 0.5-1km layer but its axis of these
winds is in line with the GFS. Overnight, winds gradually switch to
the northwest for most of the area behind the developing surface
low.

Regarding precipitation chances, there is a large dry slot being
advertised in the 850-500mb layer from the GFS/ECMWF/GEM models
which doesnt support much if any showers/thunderstorms during the
day. Shower/thunderstorm chances do increase overnight. Cant
completely rule out a few severe storms during the evening hours,
mainly east of Highway 27 if at all.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with low temperatures in the 40 to 50 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

For Tuesday, guidance continues to shower the surface low exiting
the area and moving off to the east with the advancement of the
upper trough. The issue is that ensemble guidance still shows a
variance in track and speed of progression. Most of the difference
is related to speed of progression which leads to two different
outcomes. First, a slower progression that keep the low over around
Highway 283 by midday would be more likely to lead to a higher
impact scenario. In this case, the low`s tight pressure gradient
would be over the area and bring the potential for high winds
(sustained around 30-40 mph and gusts around 45-65 mph). It would
increase the chance for precipitations as the area gets wrap around
moisture and showers/storms, but blowing dust could still form ahead
of the precipitation. If this occurs, a wall of dust could be
possible ahead of the precipitation as precipitation forms over
Eastern Colorado and advances east with the surface low. The other
scenario would be the case hinted at by the ensemble solutions where
the upper and surface low move well east of the area by the midday
hours. With this precipitation chances would be much lower and
confined more to Highway 83 and east. The winds would be gusty
(likely 20-30 mph gusting 30-50 mph), but not much of a hazard. The
blowing dust potential would also be very low with the weaker winds
and probable lower lapse rates. currently am leaning towards the
second, faster solution with ensembles being fairly consistent in
the fast track for a few days now. Chance for the higher impact
scenario is around 30%. Temperatures are forecast to be cooler, but
how much will depend on the cloud cover and cold air advection. In
most cases, temperatures are forecast in the 60`s and 70`s.

Wednesday, guidance splits on whether or not a broad trough takes
hold over most of the Central CONUS, or if some ridging occurs ahead
of another upper low that will swing through Thu-Fri. If the broad
trough forms, expect a mild day with temperatures near average in
the mid to upper 60`s. If the ridging occurs, chances increase for
70`s and even some 80 south of Highway 40. Precipitation looks to be
unlikely for either upper pattern.

Thursday and Friday, look to be under the influence of an upper low
or broad trough. In either case, below average temperatures are
forecast in the 50`s and 60`s (though temperatures could be warmer
Friday if the upper pattern is not a broad trough). There could be a
few chances for some showers, but nothing noteworthy or high chance
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 451 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

LLWS looks to impact each terminal through the period with KMCK
being impacted first then KGLD. Winds begin SSE then veer to the
WSW through mid morning Saturday. A few hours of gusts up to 25
knots looks to occur at KGLD then becoming a more sustained 15
knot wind through the area. Winds at KMCK look to remain lighter
due to a weaker pressure gradient vs a more taut gradient over
the KGLD terminal.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 648 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

With some locales possibly coming within a few degrees of near
record highs on Saturday, April 13th, here is the list of records
for this day:


Goodland, KS........90F in 2006

McCook, NE..........92F in 1936

Burlington, CO......87F in 2006

Hill City, KS.......92F in 2023


With some locales possibly coming within a few degrees of near
record highs on Sunday, April 14th, here is the list of records
for this day:


Goodland, KS........88F in 2017

McCook, NE..........92F in 1940

Burlington, CO......90F in 2006

Hill City, KS.......94F in 2003

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM
     CDT/ Saturday for KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Saturday for COZ254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Trigg
CLIMATE... Trigg/Vincent