Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 172011
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
311 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Mostly cloudy skies should continue over most of the forecast
area this afternoon into the early evening hours. This is expected
near and behind a frontal boundary that is moving southeast
through northern Alabama this afternoon. Currently it stretches
from near Tullahoma, TN southwest through NW Alabama and into
central Mississippi. Earlier isolated to scattered showers behind
the front have mainly dissipated, but can`t totally rule out a
very isolated light shower through 4 PM near and south of the
Tennessee River.

Temperatures do drop off behind the front into the mid to lower
50s, but not a much colder airmass is behind it. A much drier
airmass is in place behind the front though with dewpoints
dropping into the 20s and 30s behind it.

A much colder/drier air is in place behind a clipper system well
north of this feature that currently stretches from SE Michigan
through central Illinois and into northern Missouri. However,
based on model output and observational trends, thinking this
front will only make it as far south as SW Kentucky or NW
Tennessee around daybreak tomorrow. This should keep overnight
lows a bit warmer than earlier thought. Winds are expected to
remain around 10 mph this afternoon into the early evening hours
before increasing ahead of that clipper system as it approaches
from the north. These winds, though skies should clear this
evening, will likely keep any fog or frost from occurring. Lows
into the 36 to 41 degree range are expected. This actually may be
a tad cool. The exception to this may end up being in the northern
portion of our Tennessee counties, where lows could be slightly
lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

It will remain breezy with strong cold air advection occurring
through the day as the clipper system pushes southeast through the
area. Despite the higher sun angle and longer day. The strength of
the cold air advection should keep highs in the 45 to 50 degree
range with the coldest temperatures near and north of the
Tennessee River. The cold air advection should continue into the
evening hours on Monday. High pressure in most guidance does move
into the area from the west late Monday night into Tuesday
morning. More sure of a harder freeze near and west of the I-65
corridor. However, further east, most guidance still drops
temperatures into the mid to upper 20s, despite winds holding on
longer past 1 AM on Tuesday.

Guidance continues to be persistent forecasting temperatures of
30 degrees or colder for lows Tuesday morning. Therefore, went
ahead and issued a Freeze Warning for all of our counties in
northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee that will be in
effect from 1 AM through 9 AM on Tuesday.

Models quickly develop a weak longwave trough axis and surface
frontal boundary stretching from far SE Canada into the Desert
Southwest during the day on Tuesday. With some return flow
working around the center of the surface high (which slides into
the northern Gulf of Mexico) ahead of this next front, we see some
temperature and moisture recover begin Tuesday. With abundant
sunshine this should allow highs to climb into the mid to upper
50s. This will continue Tuesday night through the end of next
week, as this weak surface front pushes slowly east and a strong
disturbance aloft along it moves into the lower Mississippi Valley
region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The resulting upper level ridging and warm air/moisture advection
from the Gulf of Mexico should allow highs to climb back into the
upper 60s to around 70 degrees on Wednesday. So a nice and breezy
day is expected with winds around 10 mph with some higher gusts.

As the front and this upper level disturbance along it move
across the area sometime between Thursday night and Friday night,
we will likely see at least some additional isolated to scattered
showers. Don`t see alot of instability with this system. The area
should warm into the mid to upper 60s despite increased cloud
cover and possible some rain showers. There is uncertainty with
the timing of the movement of the upper level disturbance and thus
timing of rainfall over the area Thursday through Friday.

Models differ quite a bit also with temperatures into the weekend
with some models bringing more dry and cooler air around the
departed storm system into the area. This could keep temperatures
a good deal lower than current ensemble guidance, which is in the
mid 60s to around 70 degrees on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR CIGS are expected primarily through 19Z at KMSL and 20Z at
KHSV, with VCSH possible during that time before a front moves
through the area. Included a tempo group for CIGS briefly dropping
to MVFR through then as well. Then expect CIGS to break up and
become scattered in nature. Winds should shift from the WNW more
to the N early this evening around 3Z. Winds should strengthen as
that occurs and remain around 8 knots with gusts to between 15 and
20 knots possible.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW


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