Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 170512
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1212 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 918 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Clouds are moving into the region from the west this evening.
Expect cloud cover to further increase along with rain chances
overnight. This is especially true along and south of the
Tennessee River through Sunday morning. Low to medium chances
(20-40%) are forecast for these areas later tonight, with low
(20-30%) chances north of the river. However, these showers will
be light and not much measurable rainfall is forecast. Current
temperatures are in the lower to upper 50s. With increased
moisture and cloud cover, tonight`s lows will likely not drop
cooler than the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

On Sunday, a shortwave in southern TX will eject ENE across the
southern Gulf Coast states. At the same time, a cold front
associated with a low pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes
begins to dip southward towards the Tennessee Valley. This front
will help keep the aforementioned shortwave further to our south
and as a result, the bulk of the precip will stay south of our
forecast area as well. Latest HREF ensemble mean has shifted the
rain further south and PoPs were lowered across the area to follow
this trend. Best chance of rain on Sunday is for areas south of
the Tennessee River.

The cold front blasts through Sunday night changing the Tennessee
Valley`s weather back to a more winter feel. Strong CAA on Monday
holds afternoon highs in the lower 50s, despite ample sunshine.
Winds should subside by Monday evening allowing temperatures to
plummet down into the upper 20s. The grand ensemble has the
probability of below freezing temperatures between 70%-100%
Tuesday morning for the entire CWA. A freeze warning will likely
be needed on subsequent forecast updates. If you have any
sensitive vegetation outside, now would be a good time to either
bring them inside or cover them appropriately.

By Tuesday, the upper level trough axis shifts east across the
East Coast with ridging building from the west into the
Southeast. Conditions begin to moderate with afternoon highs in
the mid to upper 50s. Not nearly as cold Tuesday night with lows
in the mid to upper 30s. Winds overnight 5-10 mph may be high
enough to prevent frost formation, but this will be something to
keep an eye on as we head into next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Temperatures are not expected to be as chilly on Wednesday
morning, although conditions will be seasonably cool with
temperatures possibly falling into the upper 30s. A few
valley/sheltered locations in the east could dip perhaps into the
mid 30s, although frost appears unlikely with expected winds
overnight.

A closed upper low currently situated in the SW CONUS is expected
to eject eastward as the ridge in the West breaks down later this
week. The general consensus among the 00Z guidance suite suggests
this feature would move into the lower Miss and TN Valleys by
Thurs/Fri. At this time, sufficient lift/moisture in assoc/w the
system would begin to bring rainfall to the area perhaps as early
as Thursday, with the best chances on Friday. Instability will
likely be limited and confined to layers aloft over our area,
especially if the sfc low tracks to our south as depicted. Only
slight chances for thunderstorms were included for far SW-S
portions of the area on Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

With mid/high clouds continuing to spread into the area from the
west, VFR conds are expected into the daytime hrs Sun. Some -shra
may filter into the area from the west Sun morning, with cigs
lowering into the 5-7K ft range. Any lingering -ra/shra will then
taper off to the east during the afternoon period, with mid level
cigs prevailing into the evening hrs. Light/var winds will also
turn NNW near 7kt Sun afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...09


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