Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 182253 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
553 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Cumulus has been a little slower to develop and is a bit less
widespread than expected. Sunshine does seem to be winning out
over cold air advection in Alabama. Southern middle Tennessee has
remained in the lower to mid 40s though. Expect in most locations,
that we have already seen our high temperatures. A few locations,
especially east of the I-65 corridor in Alabama may reach the 53
degree mark or so before the sun sets. However, further north and
west, likely highs will stay in the mid to upper 40s. Winds have
picked up this afternoon and are mainly between 15 and 20 mph with
some gusts around 30 mph. Expect these windy conditions to
continue before weakening early this evening to around 10 to 15
mph with some gusts around 20 mph possible.

A large area of high pressure currently centered over eastern
Kansas and Oklahoma will push east tonight. Most guidance moves
the eastern portion of this feature into northwestern Alabama
towards midnight and into northeastern Alabama around 3 or 4 AM.
Winds will become very light calm or calm as that occurs. Not
expecting temperatures to really drop much below 32 degrees until
after midnight, due to the winds earlier in the evening. Clear
skies are expected. After 1 AM or so, temperatures should really
drop like a rock into the lower to mid 20s in most areas with the
combination of light winds and clear skies. Thus, a freeze warning
continues to be in effect for all of our counties in northern
Alabama and southern middle Tennessee from 1 AM through 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The center of this area of high pressure quickly weakens as it
shifts southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
Models continue to show a weak surface front and associated
longwave trough axis aloft stretching from SE Canada through the
Ohio Valley and Southern Plains area by then. Advection of
moisture and warmer temperatures aloft should help to provide
warmer conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night. After reaching the
mid to upper 50s in the afternoon, lows still look to drop into
the mid 30s (east) to around 40 degrees (west). A decent pressure
gradient develops between the front to the north and the weakening
high over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This should keep winds
from becoming light or calm Tuesday night, keeping frost at bay.

This weak front moves into the Tennessee Valley region Wednesday
morning. This should continue to bring more moisture and warmer
temperatures into the region. A canopy of mid level cloud cover is
shown moving into locations north of the Tennessee River. These
clouds look to become thicker and lower during the day. However,
at this time, the lower levels of the atmosphere still look too
dry for any rainfall to occur. Stronger warm air advection sets up
along and ahead of the front. Kept close to current ensemble
guidance with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees
primarily, despite cloudy conditions. Given 925 mb temperatures,
think that may still be reasonable. Lingering cloud cover near the
front and moisture advection should continue and only allow lows
to drop into the lower to mid 40s Wednesday night as the front
stalls somewhere across northern Alabama.

How far the front sags southeast Thursday morning will have an
impact on how warm it gets later in the day. Most models have
cooler temperatures near and north of the Tennessee River, where
the front may end up stalling. If it edges further south
temperatures may be slightly cooler. Right now, that puts highs in
the 61 to 66 degree range north of the river and mid/upper 60s
further south. Cloud cover will also help to keep temperatures
cooler than otherwise. A disturbance aloft develops along this
front over eastern Texas in most guidance. This feature moves east
along the front and could bring the area isolated to scattered
showers late Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

This shortwave disturbance will dig into the Tennessee Valley by
Thursday night, bringing increasing rain chances overnight through
Friday. Models still differ slightly regarding the timing of this
system, but the consensus does show the main sfc low well over
the Gulf of Mexico, keeping the better thermodynamic environment
well to our south. Have kept thunder out of the forecast with dry
conditions developing Friday night.

The weekend will start off on the cooler side, with highs in the low
to mid 60s on Saturday and clearing skies. Radiational cooling will
allow lows to fall into the lower 40s Saturday night into Sunday
morning, but should warm up nicely Sunday afternoon as southerly flow
starts to return to the area. In fact, could not really ask for a
better forecast for Sunday, with mostly sunny skies and afternoon
highs near 70 degrees. Overall, nothing too impactful expected within
the long term period!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR and clear skies will prevail through Tuesday afternoon. The
main concern will be gusty winds this evening and Tuesday
afternoon. Northwest winds will remain breezy through this evening
but subside and become light to calm late this evening and
overnight. Southwesterly winds are then forecast to increase to
10-15 knots with gusts up to around 18 knots Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...26


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