335
FXUS63 KICT 130542
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1242 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers/isolated storms tonight.

- Showers/isolated storm chances lingering through Monday night.

- Chance for storms Tuesday night through Thursday night.

- Trending warmer (above climo) for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Some diurnal heating where skies partially cleared to the west
of greater Wichita at midday has promoted scattered showers and
isolated storms approaching the western CWA border. Combo of
modest bulk shear and weak/modest instability will keep storms
rather tame with a remote possibility for small hail closer to
the Oklahoma border late this afternoon. That said, the
relatively better chances for the more organized coverage for
showers and embedded storms look to reside over parts of central
and south central Kansas during the evening thru about midnight
ahead of the vorticity anomaly associated with the upper trof.
Later in the night the better precipitable water axis
(1.33-1.50") will shift primarily to along/east of the Kansas
turnpike where a modest low level jet and elevated cape values
400-800 j/kg should support better coverage of showers/storms
with some locally heavy rainfall. Clouds and scattered showers
will linger across much of the area on Monday with a modest
diurnal up-tick possible even with limited heating. This in
combo with modest shear may support a few strong storms with a
hail small risk in far southeast Kansas. Diurnal heating on the
western periphery of the upper trof where low level moisture
will linger may support isolated storms in parts of central
Kansas too. Precip chances should diminish/end from west to east
across the forecast area on Monday evening/night as the upper
trof shifts east of the area. Dry weather is expected on Tuesday
under shortwave ridging aloft with temperatures near seasonal
climo with perhaps some diurnal cu along/east of the turnpike.

Moisture looks to advect northward into the area ahead of the next
upper trof for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Late day convection to
our northwest across southern Nebraska/northwest Kansas will have a
decent chance to move/propagate southeast into the developing
elevated instability axis over central Kansas on Tuesday night. The
airmass looks to become moderately to potentially very unstable
along the surface cold front on Wednesday which will be situated
somewhere across the forecast area (more likely along or just south
of the turnpike corridor at late afternoon). Westerly flow aloft
will provide moderate deep layer shear, so a conditional severe risk
is in play.

Confidence toward the end of the seven day forecast has trended
a bit lower as a rather large potential spread in the medium
range guidance has developed. This actually reveals itself as
early as Thursday into Friday, where the operational ECMWF is
much more agressive in digging an upper trof into the north
central conus which would imply much cooler over the GFS with
further ramification into next weekend. For now the NBM
maintains a warming trend and will stay the course with time to
adjust should an eventual consensus warrant the change.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A very messy TAF cycle this time around. A large areas of
showers is moving through the region which is bringing some MVFR
and IFR conditions across the region with KHUT, KICT and KSLN
the main terminals affected. The shower activity will be the
primary mode of weather with some embedded thunderstorm activity
as well. As such, only did TEMPO groups for TAFs this time
around as it is much more likely showers will persist with only
a few minutes of thunder with some of the stronger cells. The
shower activity is expected to abate some after 12Z but the
atmospheric conditions will keep the MVFR and IFR CIGs in the
region. There is also a chance for some drizzle this morning but
feel this will be restricted to the KRSL and KGBD area but
can`t rule it out elsewhere either. By 18Z to 20Z, daytime
heating will bring a chance for some showers and thunderstorms.
Areal coverage is expected to be limited and again, feel SHRA
will be the primary mode. This resulted in the PROB30s later in
the TAF period with either SHRA/TSRA depending on confidence.
This SHRA/TSRA activity will clear by the 00Z to 02Z time frame
but MVFR conditions may linger in a few areas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...ELM