685
FXUS63 KICT 271126
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
626 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms likely this afternoon through tonight with all
  hazards possible.

- Slight risk of severe lingers Sunday in southeast Kansas.

- Unsettled with convective potential again by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2024

Shallow moisture was returning early this morning with stratus
cigs accompanying the low to mid-60s dew points. Various short
term/convective allowing models continue to show a spread in
outcomes regarding convective evolution/trends mainly during the
daylight hours. There still is general support with some
timing/placement differences in convection developing toward
midday with the deeper low level moisture advection somewhere
along/just east of the I-135 corridor. The main question/concern
is how extensive in coverage this convection may become in the
uncapped and increasingly unstable airmass in the open warm
sector. If they remain somewhat more widely spaced (even though
not necessarily discrete) they will pose a higher probability
for large hail and a tornado given the impressive the hodographs
in the point forecast soundings. The dry-line will remain more
of a focus across west central Kansas during the mid to late
afternoon which poses another risk area of significant severe
weather/tornadoes. While somewhat more conditional, there
appears there could be a window for localized convergence in
concert with the stronger forcing for ascent ejecting out ahead
of the main upper trof. A third area of concern will be along
the warm front which will become quasi-stationary this afternoon
which looks to impact areas just north of the I-70 corridor.
There is much more confidence in the convective trends by later
this evening and tonight where the severe threat will
transition more into areas of locally heavy/training rainfall
across southeast Kansas where a Flood Watch will remain in
effect. The main upper low/trof will lift more bodily
northeastward on Sunday through Sunday night across the
Midwest/northern Plains. The surface cold front will merge with
the dry-line across eastern Kansas with a renewed severe risk
across southeast Kansas before exiting by Sunday evening.

Low level moisture will be shunted south of the area with dry
and seasonably mild weather expected for Monday, before
moisture returns by mid-week providing renewed precip/convective
chances across the area.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

MVFR CIGS are ongoing at all sites except RSL. These CIGS will
gradually scatter back to VFR through mid to late morning.
Otherwise, the main concern through the period is the
development of severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening. Introduced VCTS and TEMPO TSRA groups at ICT and CNU
where confidence is greatest for periods of storms. Lower
confidence continues elsewhere for TSRA and have decided to
maintain the PROB30 groups for the most likely timeframe.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...BMB