538
FXUS61 KILN 012220
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
620 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather conditions are expected into Thursday before
rain and storm chances return Friday and continue periodically into
early next week. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
An upper level ridge axis will remain centered over the Ohio Valley
this afternoon through the overnight. Simultaneously, a weak surface
high moves overhead while a zonally-oriented cold stalls across Ohio
and Indiana somewhere south of I-70. Although some instability is
forecast to be present just south of the front, moisture and forcing
remains weak. In fact, with ridging building in, upper level
conditions are not very supportive of rain or thunder chances this
afternoon/evening. Forecast lows south of the front remain in the
upper 50s. Lows north of the front are in the lower to middle
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Weak surface high pressure slowly progresses east of the Ohio Valley
on Thursday along with an upper level ridge axis. Southerly winds
develop during the day as the surface high moves east leading to
increasing temperatures and moisture through the day. Instability is
expected to accompany the theta-e surge so there could be a low end
thunderstorm chance by the afternoon since no capping is forecast.
Any mesoscale outflow boundaries could even lead to more scattered
storm formation should storms get going. DCAPE is also expected to
by fairly high so locally gusty winds are possible in the strongest
storms. Forecast highs rise into the lower and middle 80s across the
area under a mix of sun and clouds.

Surface high pressure and upper level ridge axis keep moving further
east of the area Thursday night. Rain chances may initially decrease
to start the night with the lose of diurnal instability before
increasing late as an upper level shortwave starts approaching from
the southwest. Southerly winds keep temperatures mild overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridging across the region begins to break down on Friday
into Friday night when a shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley.
This upper level wave helps lead to shower and thunderstorm chances
by Friday afternoon and evening when instability is forecast to
peak. Overall instability looks marginal and shear remains weak thus
the severe risk is likely to be very low. Conditions remain mild and
humid on Friday and Friday night.

The Ohio Valley may be between systems on Saturday leading to
slightly reduced rain chances for the daytime hours. Mild
temperatures and humid conditions persist.

Shower and storm chances are expected to start increasing again
Saturday night into Sunday when a weak front approaches from the
north. Exact timing and placement of the front is fairly uncertain
thus the exact timing of showers and storms remains rather vague. It
is very possible the chances for rain increase when CAM runs come in
as the time frame gets closer with the front dropping down. The
severe risk remains very low since instability and shear are weak.

The front may finally push south of the area later on Sunday
into Sunday night briefly leading to a reduction in rain chances and
temperatures to start the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances
redevelop Monday or Tuesday with the return of warm, humid
conditions. Some storms might be stronger since a potentially
supportive upper level pattern with increased shear is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with the
exception of some MVFR fog at KLUK tonight.

Southwest winds will become light and variable tonight,
eventually settling into a southeasterly direction by morning.
Winds should remain at or below 10 knots tomorrow, shifting to
the south by early afternoon.

Late tomorrow afternoon, there is a slight chance that some
showers or storms could approach KDAY. As of now, this
probability appears to be too low to include in the forecast.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times from Friday
through Monday. MVFR ceilings are possible Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Hatzos