Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 250927
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
427 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 426 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Today through tonight...

Active period, including severe storms, gusty gradient winds & some
quick heavy downpours, is expected. RAP/water vapor analysis
indicates deepening upper trough over the Intermountain West, with
stout upper jet, nearly 100kt at H5 & 130-150kt, rounding the base
of the longwave trough. This is aiding in sufficient left entrance
region jet dynamics/eventual diffluent jet & deepening sfc low
<990mb. Cold core low is expected to lift northeast, while the sfc
low could slightly lose some punch as it ejects northeast through
the Plains to Mid West. With a tightening pressure gradient this
morning around 5mb, expect this to only increase through the aftn
hours. Gradient winds will increase into the aftn as the pressure
gradient tightens to nearly 7-10mb across the CWA, so ongoing HWO
graphics/wind headlines look on track. Low level mass response will
increase into the aftn , with PWs climbing to nearly +1.5 inch PWs &
low-level jet of 50-70kts, especially in the late aftn to evening
hours. Warm front will lift northward across the Gulf Coast region,
bringing sufficient sfc dewpoints into the low-mid 60s & strong WAA
with highs peaking into the low-mid 70s across a good portion of the
area. Severe weather remains likely across the region, with copious
mean low-level bulk shear (i.e. ~40kts at 0-1km & 50-70kts at 0-
3km/0-6km, respectively) & some instability. This remains to look to
be high-shear/low CAPE (HSLC) setup. QLCS/broken line segments look
to remain the main storm mode with mesovortex potential, but recent
convective allowing model runs have increased some updraft helicity
(UH) tracks a little further southeast of the Natchez Trace
corridor. Damaging wind up to 70mph & tornadoes are likely, with a
couple of strong tornadoes possible. This is especially the case
where the highest tornado probs reside from a zone from Bastrop-
Yazoo City & just east of the Jackson Metro into south-central to
southwest MS & portions of northeast Louisiana. This will especially
be the case in any northeast bowing segments orthogonal to the low-
level bulk shear around 40-50kts & any broken line segments/isolated
supercells. In coordination with SPC, the "Enhanced" risk was
expanded to include portions of the Hwy 45 & I-59 corridors. There
was some slight adjustment to the timing, but best guess remains to
be mid-afternoon to early evening along & west of the MS River, I-55
corridor late evening hours before midnight & east-central MS around
midnight & the I-59 corridor after midnight. There will also be
heavy downpours, with quick stripes of heavy QPF reaching nearly +2
inches. Kept mention of localized flash flooding in urban & poor
drainage areas in HWO graphics but this should be progressive.

Highs will be seasonable in the low-mid 70s Monday. Lows will be
seasonably warm tonight with storms/clouds & gusty sfc gradient
winds, in the low-mid 50s northwest of the Natchez Trace to upper
50s-low 60s to the southeast, some 5-10 degrees F above normal.
Storm potential will move out by morning & rain chances will move
out by midday Tuesday, helping scour out clouds & WAA keep warm
highs around into the aftn. /DC/

Tuesday through late week...

In the wake of the active weather Monday night, conditions will
remain quiet through much of the extended period under the influence
of high pressure. Temperatures should remain fairly seasonal through
the week, gradually warming towards the weekend. Dewpoints will also
be on the rise ahead of our next wave that could bring another round
of showers and storms early next week. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Steady southeasterly winds are expected through 12Z, with
some occasional gusts up to around 20-25kts. When not gusty, low-
level wind shear will be a concern at times. Increasing moisture
will lead to MVFR stratus & cumulus deck especially after 12Z.
Ceilings may be variable in the MVFR to VFR range after that time
frame. Winds & gusts will increase after 12Z, with gusts between
30-40 kts possible. Expect storms to move in by late aftn
generally at GLH after 25/21Z & generally after 26/00Z at all
other TAF sites. Expect storms to persist through the end of the
TAF period, with some decreased winds & ceilings lifting to VFR at
GLH after 26/00Z. Some additional low-level wind shear (LLWS) is
psbl, but dependent on how much winds drop off in the wake. Held
off introduction in the 12Z TAF cycle. /DC/NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  57  73  45 /  60 100  10   0
Meridian      71  59  78  46 /  20 100  40   0
Vicksburg     75  54  70  43 /  90 100   0   0
Hattiesburg   75  62  78  49 /  40 100  30   0
Natchez       75  55  72  45 /  80  90   0   0
Greenville    70  54  66  42 / 100 100   0   0
Greenwood     69  55  69  42 /  70 100  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DC/SAS20/DC


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