660
FXUS64 KJAN 121859
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
159 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Tonight and tomorrow...

Hope you enjoyed the break this weekend as active weather has
returned for the short term period. A series of disturbances amid an
active southern stream will support multiple complexes that push
across the area starting tonight. The first few will not pose a huge
threat as there is not much instability and the warm front is
offshore the Gulf. These will push through tonight and early
tomorrow morning and there is a slight risk highlighted for south of
the HWY 84 corridor in the HWO for damaging winds to 60 mph and hail
to quarter size. A tornado cannot be ruled out but this chance is
very low considering the lack of instability and unfavorable low
level shear profile.

The main concern will be tomorrow afternoon and evening as a more
potent MCS dives across the area. Storms will initiate in central
Texas and gradually grow upscale, reaching maturity once it reaches
our area. Strong instability and deep shear will be supportive of
its maintenance, while a surface warm front, roughly extending
parallel to the HWY 49 corridor, will serve as a focus for a
potentially stronger wind swath. There is some low end tornado
threat as well given somewhat favorable wind profiles, however I
want to emphasize that the straight line winds in these cases may do
greater, more widespread damage. There is a slight risk highlighted
for this potential as well, however an upgrade to enhanced could be
possible.

In addition to severe threat, PWAT in excess of 1.8 inches and very
deep warm cloud layer will support heavy rain rates capable of
producing flash flooding. Multiple rounds of rain will enhance this
risk further and will lead to a lot of rainfall in a short period of
time, as much as 4 to 5 inches in spots, with a focus south of I-20.
This has prompted the issuance of a flash flood watch and an
elevated risk in the HWO for this area.
/SAS/

Monday Night through Saturday...

The potential for severe storms and heavy rain will be ongoing as
we begin the forecast period Monday night. A complex of storms is
advertised to be in the process of racing east through the CWA
during this time. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, quarter to
golf ball size hail, and tornadoes will be possible with this
complex as it moves through. In addition, heavy rainfall will
again continue to be a concern during this time. High rainfall
rates and training west to east convection could result in flash
flooding, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas, along
with some minor river flooding.

Showers and storms will continue to be possible into Tuesday as the
main upper trough moves through the region.  This activity will
steadily exit the CWA through the course of the afternoon as the
trough exits to the northeast.  High pressure at the surface and
ridging aloft will quickly build into the region Tuesday night, with
a return to quiet weather expected through at least Wednesday night.

Chances for showers and storms will yet again increase across the
forecast area early Thursday morning, with chances remaining in the
forecast through Saturday.  This is as a result of yet another
series of disturbances forecast to affect the region. It`ll also be
during this time, particularly Friday and Saturday, that the
potential for both heavy rain and severe storms will need to
monitored in upcoming forecasts. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR conditions will gradually transition to MVFR/IFR as lower
ceilings move in tonight. -RA and possibly embedded thunderstorms
will be possible tonight and may briefly drop visibilities to
around 4SM. Multiple rounds of storms are likely tomorrow. Winds
will be from the southeast around 5 to 10 mph, while isolated
gusts to 20-25 are possible with any storms, especially for sites
south of I-20./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  79  66  83 /  90  80  50  30
Meridian      62  77  65  85 /  80 100  60  50
Vicksburg     65  82  66  84 /  90  70  50  10
Hattiesburg   66  84  67  87 /  80  90  70  40
Natchez       65  83  65  84 /  90  80  50  10
Greenville    66  79  67  82 /  90  60  50  20
Greenwood     64  77  66  82 /  90  80  50  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning
     for MSZ053>066-072>074.

LA...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning
     for LAZ024>026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS20/19/SAS20