Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
952 FXUS62 KKEY 021835 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 235 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 This afternoon has brought mostly clear skies and a few showers speckled across the Straits of Florida and north of the Lower Keys. The showers north of the Lower Keys are associated with a weak cloud line that has persisted for a good portion of the afternoon, but has struggled to maintain anything more than just weak showers. Winds over the past few hours have increased across the island chain and coastal waters, with a few land-based observation platforms measuring occasional wind gusts around 20 mph. Temperatures have reached the mid 80s in most island communities and dew points are in the lower 70s, making for a warm afternoon. Otherwise, it has been a nice day across the Florida Keys! After our brief look into wet season, rain chances are expected to drop slightly below the climatological norm through the weekend. Forecast soundings highlight a gradually drying of the atmospheric column over the next few days. The drier atmosphere combined with a generally inhibitive environment will mostly prevent rain chances from breaching the 10% mark through the extended forecast. Some periods may see slightly higher rainfall chances due to small pockets of moisture traversing the forecast area, however, the timing of this is difficult so have done a broad brush 10% through mid-next week. Guidance suggests near nil rain chances by mid next week, but have decided to keep a slight chance of rain due to how far out in the forecast it is and the elevated flow that is expected, which could possible induce speed convergence. The reason behind the oscillations in the wind speeds is the gradual merger of high pressure in the North Atlantic and another elongated high across the Eastern Seaboard. These highs will consolidate into an expansive high across the western North Atlantic, which will keep winds elevated at times through late next week. Winds will remain from the east, which will usher in near to slightly above normal temperatures and dew points near 70 degrees. Despite the lack of rainfall forecast over the next 7 days, the fast approach of summer will be very evident by just stepping outside. Luckily the moderate winds will keep at least some of the humidity at bay. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds in the Hawk Channel and Straits of Florida. From synopsis, multiple high pressure mergers through the extended forecast will lead to an extensive period of easterly breezes that will generally be moderate but with some fluctuations. Peaks will occur mainly during the nighttime hours, with some lulling during the daytime. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR conditions continue over EYW and MTH today. Weak showers developed north of EYW in the afternoon and east-southeasterly near- surface winds indicate the cloud line will be kept north of EYW. Brief patches of MVFR CIGs may move across MTH and EYW during the period, but not at high enough frequency or with the timing to warrant a TEMPO group. Expect a very slight drop in surface wind speeds in the early morning. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2013, rainfall records were recorded at both Key West (4.14") and Marathon (2.23"). Rainfall records date back to 1871 in Key West and 1950 in Marathon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 75 85 75 84 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 76 85 76 84 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....NB Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest