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000
FXUS62 KKEY 141911
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
311 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery is detecting eroding
stratocumulus clouds streaming in from the northeast to east across
the Florida Keys island chain as well as the adjacent nearshore
and offshore coastal waters. Temperatures are in the mid to upper
70s, on their way to their advertised highs near 80F. Winds remain
breezy at times, occasionally gusting to near 20 mph across the
islands.

A very routine forecast today, with only minimal adjustments made
to the inherited overnight iteration. High pressure currently
centered just offshore the Florida Peninsula will slowly slide
eastward this week, eventually merging with another surface high
developing in the central North Atlantic. Meanwhile, a very strong
mid- and upper-level ridge will remained planted in the Gulf of
Mexico, acting to deflect any potential disturbances away from the
Florida Keys. Forecast soundings through the end of the work week
highlight fairly unidirectional (or slightly backed) low-level
flow, along with very little moisture above the 900 mb isobaric
surface. Nil rain chances will be maintained for this period.
Winds will take quite a bit of time to clock around to the east to
southeast this week, and thus temperatures will remain pretty
steady, with highs generally in the lower 80s, and lows in the
lower to mid 70s. It does appear there may be a slight uptick on
available moisture as well as modest 0-3 km veering for next
weekend, when slight measurable rain chances are mentioned in the
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024
Moderate to occasionally fresh northeast to east
breezes will continue this afternoon across the Keys coastal
waters. High pressure over the Florida Peninsula will slide into
the western Atlantic, and remain in place through the middle of
the week. This will result in easterly moderate to modestly fresh
breezes. Thereafter, a secondary high pressure moving in from the
Central Plains will gradually blanket the Gulf of Mexico. This
will result in slackening breezes for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024
VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both island terminals
through the TAF period (ending 15/18Z). East winds sustained near
15 knots with frequent gusts over 20 knots are expected to
gradually decrease and become more northeast to east northeast
tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions with scattered stratocumulus
bases 3500- 4000 ft are expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys Weather History, in 2020, the daily record
warm low temperature of 81F was recorded in Key West. This is
also tied for the warmest low temperature ever recorded in April.
April temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  74  82  74  83 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  74  82  75  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....JR
Data Acquisition.....BT

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