431
FXUS63 KLBF 281716
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1216 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances of showers stick around across western and north
  central Nebraska today, as a low pressure system brings wrap
  around precipitation.

- A brief break from rain on Monday, with temperatures
  returning to seasonal and remaining near seasonal through the
  week.

- Chances of precipitation remain almost every day starting
  Tuesday through the weekend, with the best chances appearing
  to be Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Upper air analysis and satellite imagery show a upper level trough
across the the Desert Southwest, with the trough axis extending
roughly from western Nebraska to central New Mexico. The upper level
low is over southwest Nebraska and northeast Colorado. At the
surface, a low pressure system is noted over south central Kansas,
with a stationary front extending northeast to Wisconsin, and a
stationary front extending back to a low pressure system in north
central Oklahoma. This system has been producing a long line of
thunderstorms from southwest Texas through northern Illinois. On the
north side of the low, a line of showers is observed over north
central Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The low pressure system begins to trek northeastward today,
following the upper level low. As the low track northeastward, it
will continue to provide forcing for rain showers across north
central Nebraska, with wrap around precipitation across western
Nebraska. Of note for this morning, as temperatures remain
slightly above freezing this morning, there will be some
potential to see show mixing in with the showers. However, given
both air and soil temperatures, do not expect any accumulations
at this time.

Otherwise, today remains a mostly cool and dreary day with overcast
skies. By the evening, clouds and showers start moving out of the
area from the west to the east, finally pushing out by Monday
afternoon. Overnight temperatures drop into the low 30s where skies
are clear, with mid to upper 30s under the remaining clouds.

By Monday morning, a low amplitude ridge begins moving in over
western Nebraska, bringing a temporary break from the rain.
Temperatures will climb back into the upper 60s across north central
Nebraska, with temperatures in the 70s across western and
southwest Nebraska. Temperatures remain relatively mild
overnight, with lows in the 40s Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

As the low amplitude ridge treks eastward, a fairly progressive
upper level pattern is expected through the week. This brings at
least chances of precipitation pretty much every day this week. With
this upper level pattern, temperatures should also remain around
seasonal though the week.

A shortwave sets up over Wyoming on Tuesday, and most model guidance
tracks a cold front through the region on Tuesday. This brings
another chance for rain this week, particularly across northern
Nebraska. Ensembles are not exactly bullish on the rain chances for
our area, with the ECMWF ensemble being the most aggressive
with around 30-40% chances of rain greater than one tenth of an
inch. Even though models are in agreement on a cold frontal
passage, temperatures remain mostly in the 60s and 70s on
Tuesday. For what it`s worth, the latest SPC convective outlook
places a Marginal risk for severe weather to the east of our
area, in eastern Nebraska. Though the risk for severe weather
appears low at this time, it may be worth keeping an eye on.

Wednesday brings around a 30-40% chance of precipitation, however,
ensembles are not too enthusiastic about the amounts. Staying with
the percentages of at least one tenth of an inch, the ECMWF ensemble
again remains the most aggressive, around 20-40% across the region,
while the GEFS only getting areas of 10-20% chances. Deterministic
models also show a bit of drying in the upper levels behind the
Tuesday cold front, which may be impacting precipitation chances
Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning brings a much better chance of
precipitation. A somewhat deeper shortwave is expected to track
across Wyoming, with a respectable area of positive vorticity
advection aloft. Guidance also suggests a shot of moisture
advection in the lower levels. The ensemble guidance seems to be
picking up on the synoptic forcing, as probabilities of greater
than one tenth of an inch of precipitation are generally 70-80%
in this timeframe.

Friday into the weekend also keeps chances of precipitation around,
however some spread begins to appear in the ensemble guidance,
ranging from around a 10-40% chance of measurable precipitation. The
upper pattern is expected to remain active, with numerous shortwaves
expected, so there should be some level of forcing aloft. Will
certainly be worth keeping an eye on, as this week and weekend has
the potential to be quite wet across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Rain showers will continue to wane into this evening across the
area, ending from south to north. Low stratus will also begin to
push out from south to north after sunset, with improvement to
VFR for all area terminals by the end of valid period tomorrow
afternoon. Fog development is possible for western and southwest
Nebraska terminals tomorrow morning as low clouds clear, though
confidence remains lowered in this for now. Future inclusion of
lowered visiblity category at KLBF may be needed.

Winds remain northwesterly through sunset, before transitioning
to the west tomorrow morning, at around 5 to 15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Brown