359
FXUS64 KLCH 100520
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1220 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Strong to severe cells over east Texas starting to congeal into a
line and looking like a severe and heavy rain threat will occur
for portions of the forecast area mainly north of the I-10
corridor moving from west to east for the next 5 hours or so.

Parameters on the 00z KLCH sounding have DCAPE over 1100j/kg with
mid level lapse rate over 8.0c/km, with 0-6km shear at 58 knots.
These are conducive for large hail and damaging downburst and
outflow winds. PWAT also over the 90th percentile level and cells
look to be produce high rainfall rates that will lead to a flood
potential.

Severe Watch is already out for locations with the higher
probability to see the large hail and damaging winds until 3 am.
Overall current forecast is on track and no significant changes
needed at this time.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Haze continues to shroud the area on southerly winds which brought
remnant smoke from Mexico into the region. Expect this haze to
stick around through the evening and overnight - at the very
least, should make for a very pretty sunset!

The bigger talking point in the short term forecast is the arrival
of a cold front and associated showers/thunderstorms to the
region. Last update, the expectation was for convection to remain
in north-central Louisiana. However, latest CAMs suites are
bringing thunderstorms into south-central Louisiana with a more
southerly trend to boot. The expectation now is for several
clusters of showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold
front which will surge east and southeast into our northern zones.
DCAPE and shear profiles will support strong downbursting wind
segments which could produce isolated tornadoes. Lapse rates and
CAPE will also support healthy updrafts and large hail. The
question is whether or not these segments will end up in our area;
forecaster confidence has lowered in regard to placement of
storms, thus PoPs were increased down towards HWY 190 with the
best chance on a Hardin to Beauregard to Evangeline line and
north.

The long and short of it: All hazards are possible with storms,
especially strong winds and large hail. Tornadoes cannot be ruled
out. This is a late night event, so we are cautioning folks to
have multiple means of receiving emergency alerts.

The concern for flooding rains also continues, especially for
areas in the Hardin, Beauregard to Evangeline line and north. This
is the best area for shower and thunderstorms which may produce
heavy downpours. In the event of training rainfall and/or heavy
downpours, there could be some flash flood risk. Most convection
should be pretty progressive, so the chance of this is low, but
not zero. Those concerned parties should continue to monitor radar
trends and forecasts tonight.

Cold front moves through overnight tonight into tomorrow morning
bringing about much cooler and drier air. This will also wash the
haze (and mosquitos) out into the Gulf! High pressure and dry air
will keep the remainder of the short term cool and dry.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Rain chances return to the forecast as we begin the long-term as a
shortwave is progged to cut off over the srn Rockies, while sfc high
pressure pushes east of the forecast area and ushers in a moister
srly flow off the Gulf. With forecast soundings indicating mean RH
values rising to around 90 percent and PWAT values climbing to
around 1.9 inches (well above the 90th percentile per SPC sounding
climo), scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop through the day Sunday and linger through Monday night
before the shortwave ejects ewd, dragging a cold front through the
area. With the potential for heavy rains during this period, WPC is
highlighting much of the forecast area in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall both Sunday and Monday, with the remainder of the
area is generally in a marginal risk.

By Tuesday, the sfc boundary is progged to wash out east of the area
with a return flow off the Gulf re-establishing itself quickly.
Along with weak/nil capping and daytime heating, there is the
potential for a few showers/storms during the day

The remainder of the forecast period will see a gradual increase in
POPs as another disturbance/sfc front are forecast to pass the area,
along with increasing moisture.

Below normal temps to start the long-term period will gradually warm
through the period with temps jumping back to the mid/upper 80s for
highs with mins back to mid/upper 60s.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The only terminal that is expected to be effected by any storm
activity is KAEX and that will be through about 10/07z.

Otherwise, MVFR ceilings and some minor visibility restrictions
will be the main concern during the overnight. A cold front will
move through turning the winds to from a more northerly direction.
These winds will filter in drier air with low clouds lifting and
VFR conditions by late morning.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A light to moderate onshore flow and seas with seas 2 to 4 feet
will prevail into tonight. Areas of fog and haze are likely to
reduce visibilities, however, dense fog criteria is not
anticipated.

A cold front will push through the coastal waters late tonight
into Friday morning, accompanied by isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Offshore flow along with elevated seas will
develop behind the front Friday and Saturday. Onshore flow becomes
reestablished Sunday as high pressure slides east of the area.
Precipitation chances will also increase again Sunday and Monday
as a series of upper level disturbances move across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  61  82  62  77 /  10   0  10  30
LCH  65  84  66  79 /  10   0  10  50
LFT  66  86  67  84 /  10   0  10  30
BPT  67  85  68  81 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...07