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000
FXUS64 KLCH 142058
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
358 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Breezy southerly flow continues to stream low level moisture into
the region this afternoon with dewpoints now consistently in the
low to mid 60s area wide. Initial forecast concern in the short
term is the potential for patchy fog early tomorrow morning. Winds
are expected to relax somewhat late tonight with the lightest
winds expected across lower acadiana where the highest potential
for fog will exist. Any fog that develops isn`t expected to become
dense and should be quick to dissipate after sunrise.

Conditions Monday will be very similar to today with breezy
southerly winds developing by late morning as the region remains
sandwiched between high pressure over Florida and a developing
cyclone along the Lee side of the Colorado Rockies. This low will
drag a frontal boundary across Central and East Texas Tuesday
keeping winds elevated and flirting with wind advisory criteria
although guidance is a few knots lower this afternoon compared to
yesterday. There is better inter model consistency this afternoon
in the vast majority of the energy associated with the front
remaining north of the region. A stray shower or storm can`t be
completely ruled out across interior Southeast Texas and central
Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and SPC has highlighted these areas in
a marginal risk of severe weather for any storms that do manage to
develop.

The boundary will not actually make it through the area and
continued southerly flow will gradually diminish Tuesday night as
the frontal boundary departs to the Northeast.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Warm and humid conditions are expected to prevail through the latter
part of the week as southerly winds persist with surface high
pressure to the east of the area. The region will remain beneath a
generally southwest flow aloft as the majority of the stronger
shortwaves will be confined to the northern half of the US, with a
weaker southern stream trough noted over NW Mexico. Meanwhile, a
frontal boundary associated with surface low pressure over the
midwest will stay north of the area.

Moisture will be plentiful, with PWATs peaking between 1.6 and 1.8
inches from Wednesday into Thursday. However, rain chances will be
low with limited to weak forcing over the region. The best potential
for possibly an isolated shower or storm will be on Thursday as the
trough that was over NW Mexico progresses east, weakening as it
moves over the NW Gulf coast. Better rain chances are expected to
arrive by the weekend as a cold front finally moves south into the
area, slowly making its way toward the coast.

Above normal temperatures are expected to prevail through at least
Saturday, with highs into the middle (and possibly upper) 80s each
afternoon while lows only fall back into the upper 60s/around 70.
NBM temperatures hint at the possibility of more seasonable
temperatures returning by the end of the weekend (assuming the
anticipated front finally moves through the area).

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Breezy southerly winds will continue this afternoon and early
evening as the pressure gradient continues to tighten between high
pressure over Florida and an area of low pressure over the Great
Lakes. VFR conditions will prevail through the evening with SCT to
BKN fair weather cu and SCT high clouds. Intermittent MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop early Monday morning along with
the possibility of patchy fog should winds fall below about 6
knots. Any fog that develops should dissipate by 14Z with VFR
conditions to prevail thereafter.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Moderate onshore flow will continue this afternoon and tonight
before strengthening further Monday and Tuesday as an area of
low pressure forms and deepens over the Plains. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed Tuesday. Onshore flow will
remain in place through the upcoming week. Precipitation chances
remain negligible until next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  62  83  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  65  79  69  81 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  65  81  70  83 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  65  80  69  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...66