Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 272058
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
358 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

High pressure and ridging dominate the upper level pattern for the
short term forecast. Northerly surface winds will persist through
Friday, keeping drier and less humid conditions for tonight
through Friday morning. Temperatures are forecast to be in the
low 70s for highs and lows in the mid to upper 40s for much of the
area. The NBM temperatures line up well with model guidance, so
no major changes were made in the temperatures from the NBM.

Winds shift southerly Friday into Saturday, which will start to
reintroduce moisture and humidities into the environment. Highs
Friday are in the upper 70s and approaching 80 in some locations
with lows Saturday morning in the mid 50s. The NBM temperatures
line up well with model guidance, so no major changes were made in
the forecast from NBM. No rain is expected tonight through
Saturday morning, looking at the models. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

As upper ridging builds into the area and the surface high shifts
eastward,  low level winds will take on a southerly component by
Saturday leading to a gradual warming and moistening trend. With
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, expect afternoon highs to rise
into the low to mid 80s by Sunday and possibly into the upper 80s in
some areas by Monday.

Going into Tuesday, a southern stream low will be moving into the
southwestern CONUS, resulting in the elongation of the main upper
level trough. This will also serve to slow the southward progression
of an approaching cold front. Currently looks like the southern
stream trough will continue progressing eastward through the day
Tuesday, before some of the energy closes off over Texas midweek.
Currently looks like the eastward progression of the southern stream
trough will be enough to push the surface front through the local
area late Tuesday into Wednesday.  However, there is roughly a 20
degree difference between high and low members of the ECMWF ensemble
and about the same difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles
in the NBM.  Currently the operational NBM is just a smidge warmer
than its 50th percentile and roughly in line with the Euro ensemble
means. Thus did not make any significant changes compared to the
latest NBM guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist
through the forecast period at all area airports. Wind shifts of
greater than 30 degrees will be likely tomorrow morning at all
area airports. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Winds will be elevated (15-20kts) and northerly as the front
moves off the east coast of the US. Exercise caution headlines are
in effect through tomorrow and likely to be extended through
Friday. Winds shift southerly Friday and remain southerly and
moderate (10-15kts) through the forecast period. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  41  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  46  74  46  79 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  46  73  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  52  71  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  48  73  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  46  74  43  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW


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