Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 252009
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
409 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Wind Advisory in effect at 8 PM EDT this evening. Gusts over 40
  mph expected tonight into Tuesday.

* Widespread showers tonight. More scattered on Tuesday, but there
  is a small chance of a narrow line of thunderstorms Tuesday
  afternoon into early evening. A few of these storms could produce
  enhanced wind gusts and hail. The best chance at this time appears
  to be over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The low pressure system that is currently moving towards Lake
Superior, where it will arrive tomorrow afternoon, is currently
moving out of the eastern Plains and into the Midwest. The system
being pushed by a widening upper trough, covering the western half
of the US, is dragging a cold front towards the Ohio Valley. This
continues to tighten the pressure gradient as surface winds over
southern Indiana and central Kentucky continue their final push
towards the south. Current wind gusts range from about 20-30 mph
across the CWA.  This is pushing temperatures in the region through
the mid 60s and into the low 70s in ares seeing more sunshine,
mainly areas in the northeastern half of the CWA.

Tonight, the system will develop a low level jet which will begin to
move into the CWA shortly after 0z. The LLJ is expected to quickly
strengthen to 80-90 knots at the 850mb level, and as the night
continues, the jet will slowly weaken as it moves east and northeast
out of the CWA. At around 12-14z, the strongest part of the jet is
expected to be around 60-70 knots. Rain showers are expected to
begin shortly after 0z as well. The bulk of the precipitation is
still expected to fall during the overnight hours, but trends over
the last couple of days continue to show the total amount of
rainfall decreasing as the main line of precipitation could break
apart, leaving a dry periods. Overall model soundings keep the low
levels stable. This will help limit the full affects of the LLJ, but
during times of precipitation, this could help to bring more wind
energy to the surface. Even without this, winds ares still expected
to gust to 35-50 mph with the higher gusts along the western half of
the CWA. Because of this threat, we have the Wind Advisory in place
and will continue it. Strong WAA is expected to keep temperatures in
the 50s.

Tomorrow, the LLJ will remain through most of the day. Remaining
precipitation could take its time exiting the eastern parts of the
CWA, but many areas over the northwestern half of the CWA will
likely be dry for most of the day. We are also expecting a decent
amount of sunshine tomorrow. With gusts remaining near Wind Advisory
levels, WAA will continue to be strong. Temperatures are expected to
respond by warming into the upper 60s in our eastern counties to low
to mid 70s across our western counties. There will also be a short
window of enough instability and surface base wind shear that an
isolated strong to severe storm will be possible, mainly across
southern Indiana. The threat could drop south into Kentucky, but the
threat will be better to the north. This could come through as a
line or two of broken convection during the afternoon between the
morning rain showers and the cold front in the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Tuesday Night through Friday...

Cold frontal boundary looks to surge eastward Tuesday evening with
precipitation diminishing by sunset.  Winds will remain elevated and
diminish overnight and look for lows dropping into the 35-40 degree
range.

For the Wednesday through Friday period, the weather pattern looks
to remain quiet with Canadian high pressure moving across the
region. Highs Wednesday will be in the lower-mid 50s west of I-65
and upper 50s east of I-65.  Lows Wednesday night will drop into the
30-35 degree range.  Temps look to moderate a bit on Thursday with
highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Lows Thursday night look
to drop back into the mid 30s.  Upper ridging will build into the
region for Friday with a more robust southerly flow pattern taking
shape.  Highs on Friday look to warm into the 65-70 degree range.

Friday Night through Sunday...

By Friday night, upper ridge axis will be located over the eastern
Plains and western MO Valley with a northwest flow aloft pattern
over the Ohio Valley.  Both the Euro and GFS solutions suggest that
a warm frontal boundary will lift northward through the region late
Friday and Saturday.  As this feature moves through, scattered
showers and perhaps some elevated convection may occur.  For this
reason, we plan on keeping at least some slight chance PoPs going
for the Friday night and Saturday morning period.  The weather for
late Saturday and Sunday continues to look potentially unsettled as
the wavy warm front looks to remain in the vicinity.  The Euro has
continued to keep the warm front a bit more north of the region and
allowing temps on Sunday to warm into the upper 60s/lower 70s with
much of the precipitation occurring over central IN/OH. On the other
hand, the GFS solution allows the warm front to come back southward
as a cool front and then stalls it out across central KY. Here the
additional clouds and precip would result in temps in the 50s.
Multiple perturbations are likely to move along this boundary and
periods of showers/storms with heavy rainfall could occur.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected to remain through the rest of today
and into a good portion of the night. Late tonight until around
midday tomorrow, ceilings will likely drop into MVFR levels at HNB
and BWG as a cold front approaches from the west. SDF will be near
the MVFR and VFR line, but believe they will remain VFR. With the
falling ceilings will come rain, but visibilities are expected to
remain VFR. The main issue this period will be the low level wind
shear. An extremely strong 80-85 knot low level jet near 850mb will
move over the area, resulting in LLWS at all area TAF sites.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Advisory from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 6 PM
     EDT /5 PM CDT/ Tuesday for KYZ023>032-034-038-045-046-053-
     054-061>065-070>078-081-082.
IN...Wind Advisory from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 6 PM
     EDT /5 PM CDT/ Tuesday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...KDW


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