Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 230736
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
336 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Brisk north winds Today, gusting 20-30 mph.

* Temperatures below freezing for northern portions of the region
  Sunday morning.

* Impactful storm system Mon-Tue, windy, with showers becoming
  widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Cold front has pushed south through our area, and the light radar
returns have also diminished over the past couple hours. Will
continue to see variable sky cover through the morning, however
before skies clear around midday. Expecting a pretty strong pressure
gradient across the area today as high pressure settles over the
Great Lakes by this evening. This will put gusty N winds in place
and help to keep temperatures below normal for this time of year.
Expecting gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range at times, and with temps
only getting into the upper 40s and low 50s it will feel pretty raw
today. Some afternoon sun could help a bit, but overall went below
guidance for highs today.

Winds slacken a bit with sunset, although still expecting a 5-10 mph
NE wind through the overnight. This should allow temps to drop into
the 27-32 degree range, and could present another opportunity for
any early blooming vegetation to sustain some damage.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Dry weather is expected for Sunday as mid-level ridging centers over
the region. Sfc high pressure to our north will promote cool
easterly flow throughout the day, which will keep our temps a bit
cooler than normal. Upper level cloud cover will also begin to
increase well ahead of our next weather system. The combination of
CAA and increasing cloud cover will limit temps to the 50s for most,
but possibly the low 60s for south-central Kentucky. To our west, a
large upper level trough will be pivoting across the southwestern
US. This system will drive a sfc low from eastern Colorado to the
Great Lakes between Sunday and Monday.

On Monday, that sfc low will be trailing a cold front through the
Midwest, with a notable 850 jet out ahead of it pulling ample warm
air and moisture northward into the region. As a response to the WAA
regime taking over, temps will be in the 60s, and possibly some
areas approaching the low 70 during the afternoon. Despite the
increasing cloud cover, WAA pattern will be fairly strong. Due to
this, decided to blend the NBM 50th and 75th percentiles for
Monday`s max temps. The 850 jet core will be focused to our west
throughout the day, with winds exceeding 45-50kts. These winds will
work down to the sfc, resulting in gusty southerly winds mainly west
of I-65 for Monday.

Precip chances will begin to filter into our region from the west by
Monday night as the strengthening LLJ and cold front progresses
eastward. Just how much the LLJ strengthens is yet to be determined,
but the GFS is the most aggressive with 850 mb winds near 80 kts
Monday night. Other global deterministic solutions are not far off,
but the ECMWF and Canadian are a bit more aligned at 70 kts.
Regardless, we should have wind gusts near Wind Advisory criteria
for Monday night and into Tuesday.

PWATs will surge to more than 1.2 inches during the early morning
hours on Tuesday. Model soundings continue to suggest an environment
with high shear, but little to no CAPE during the morning. Gusty
rain showers, some moderate to heavy rates at times, will be
possible from late Monday night through Tuesday morning. By the
afternoon, we could get a brief pause in precip as a weak dry slot
works into the region. This could set the stage for another line of
storms to fire up along the actual cold front boundary. Given the
warm airmass in place, some sfc instability may develop during this
break. Fortunately the shear profiles will be weakening due to the
LLJ departing off to our east, but it`s possible we could see a few
strong storms, maybe a marginally severe storm or two, with the cold
front as it sweeps through Tuesday afternoon. Confidence is low
given we are still several days out, but we`ll refine the details as
more data comes in.

Light PoPs will linger Tuesday night, but drier weather will be
filtering back into the region for Wednesday as sfc high pressure
returns. We`ll keep a dry forecast for the rest of the work week,
with temps near normals. Temps warm up for Friday, with highs
possibly in the upper 60s ahead of another chance of rain for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

A cold front is now pushing SE of the TAF sites with northerly winds
expected to become gusty in the wake of the front early this
morning. Look for a few gusts up around the 20 to 25 mph range. MVFR
stratus will also be common through mid to late morning before
clouds scatter out for the afternoon. Breezy winds will linger into
early this evening before slackening with sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...BJS


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