Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FGUS73 KLMK 151823
ESFLMK
INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-
017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103-
111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211-
213-215-217-223-229-239-281200-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
122 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook covers south central Indiana, central Kentucky, and the
Ohio River from Madison, Indiana to Tell City, Indiana.

The flood risk in the middle of the Ohio Valley is above normal for
this time of year. Minor flooding is expected due to rainfall.

This outlook is valid through April 2018.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/20/2018 - 05/21/2018

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Barren River
Bowling Green       28.0   32.0   45.0 :  24   23   17   16   <5   <5
:Blue River
Fredericksburg      20.0   24.0   27.0 :  23   25   13   13   <5   <5
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton             24.0   35.0   42.0 :  34   38   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill          10.0   12.0   14.0 :  42   45   29   30   19   19
:Green River
Munfordville        28.0   50.0   57.0 :  33   33   <5   <5   <5   <5
Rochester           17.0   25.0   30.0 :  77   69   18   16   <5   <5
Woodbury            26.0   38.0   41.0 :  77   92   21   44   12   31
:Kentucky
Camp Nelson Lock    30.0   36.0   40.0 :  25   32   13   20    7   16
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock      31.0   35.0   40.0 :  14   11    7    6   <5   <5
Ford Lock           26.0   35.0   40.0 :  23   22   <5   <5   <5   <5
High Bridge Lock    30.0   36.0   39.0 :  19   17    7    6   <5   <5
Lockport Lock       33.0   43.0   49.0 :  38   35   13    9    6    6
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring   25.0   42.0   45.0 :  50   37   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy              25.0   28.0   32.0 :  23   21   10   <5   <5   <5
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek       451.0  457.0  470.0 :  18   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cannelton Lock      42.0   46.0   50.0 :  42   36   12    9   <5   <5
McAlpine Lower      55.0   65.0   73.0 :  28   29    6   <5   <5   <5
McAlpine Upper      23.0   30.0   38.0 :  34   35   12    7   <5   <5
Tell City           38.0   44.0   50.0 :  65   60   18   11   <5   <5
:Rolling Fork River
Boston              35.0   42.0   45.0 :  53   52   23   22   14   13
:Rough River
Dundee              25.0   28.0   30.0 :  44   40   25   25   10   10
:Salt River
Shepherdsville      32.0   35.0   40.0 :   7    9   <5    7   <5   <5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana           20.0   22.0   23.0 :  28   28   20   20   16   16

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/20/2018 - 05/21/2018
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Barren River
Bowling Green        14.5   15.5   18.0   22.6   27.3   36.0   38.4
:Blue River
Fredericksburg        6.3    7.7    9.3   11.9   19.4   25.0   25.9
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton              10.1   11.4   14.5   20.3   26.0   32.8   33.6
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill            5.3    6.4    7.2    8.7   12.6   16.3   20.1
:Green River
Munfordville         12.5   13.0   16.4   20.4   31.5   43.0   48.3
Rochester            15.0   16.0   17.1   19.5   23.1   27.0   29.0
Woodbury             22.2   23.1   26.6   30.9   36.6   41.6   45.5
:Kentucky
Camp Nelson Lock     20.0   20.7   22.1   24.4   29.9   37.4   41.3
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock       13.0   13.5   15.4   20.5   26.5   32.5   36.7
Ford Lock            16.9   17.6   18.7   20.3   25.4   29.3   32.4
High Bridge Lock     18.0   18.6   20.1   22.2   27.6   33.9   37.4
Lockport Lock        17.5   18.1   21.9   28.3   38.0   44.1   50.8
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring    16.9   18.1   20.1   25.0   30.8   37.9   40.7
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy               10.2   11.9   16.7   21.3   24.5   27.9   28.7
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek        433.9  436.2  439.1  443.5  448.1  454.0  456.3
Cannelton Lock       31.9   34.5   37.3   41.4   43.3   46.4   49.9
McAlpine Lower       39.0   42.0   45.1   50.6   55.5   62.3   66.1
McAlpine Upper       15.7   16.7   17.4   20.4   24.5   31.0   34.8
Tell City            30.7   33.3   36.0   40.9   42.7   45.3   48.1
:Rolling Fork River
Boston               15.4   21.0   26.2   36.0   41.4   46.5   49.2
:Rough River
Dundee               17.1   19.0   21.2   24.0   28.0   30.0   30.6
:Salt River
Shepherdsville        5.8    6.3    7.5   12.1   18.4   29.4   34.5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana             8.6    9.2   10.7   14.0   20.9   24.3   26.5

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/20/2018 - 05/21/2018
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Barren River
Bowling Green        11.3   10.4    8.7    5.1    4.4    4.2    4.1
:Blue River
Fredericksburg        3.0    3.0    2.9    2.7    2.6    2.5    2.5
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton               4.9    4.7    4.6    4.4    4.3    4.3    4.2
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill            2.6    2.5    2.3    2.1    2.1    2.0    2.0
:Green River
Munfordville          6.8    5.4    4.2    3.8    3.4    3.2    3.1
Rochester            12.1   11.5    9.9    8.7    8.0    7.3    7.0
Woodbury             11.3   10.5    6.8    4.2    3.1    2.7    2.6
:Kentucky
Camp Nelson Lock     12.8   12.6   12.2   11.8   11.6   11.4   11.3
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock        8.5    8.4    8.1    7.9    7.9    7.8    7.7
Ford Lock            11.0   10.9   10.5   10.2   10.0    9.8    9.7
High Bridge Lock     11.0   10.9   10.5   10.5   10.5   10.5   10.5
Lockport Lock        10.7   10.4   10.0    9.7    9.6    9.5    9.4
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring    11.2   11.0   10.8   10.6   10.6   10.6   10.5
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy                3.6    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.2
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek        423.7  422.7  422.1  421.9  421.5  421.3  421.2
Cannelton Lock       16.9   15.4   14.0   13.3   12.4   12.0   11.9
McAlpine Lower       20.0   17.5   15.6   14.3   13.0   12.4   12.2
McAlpine Upper       12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5
Tell City            17.2   16.1   15.1   14.5   13.7   13.4   13.2
:Rolling Fork River
Boston                6.6    6.3    5.1    4.6    4.3    4.1    3.9
:Rough River
Dundee               10.0    9.4    7.4    6.0    5.9    5.8    5.8
:Salt River
Shepherdsville        2.4    2.1    1.9    1.7    1.6    1.6    1.5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana             4.9    4.8    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.5

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

This outlook calls for above normal chance of minor flooding due to
the current streamflow conditions and expected precipitation over
the next few weeks. Minor flooding means minimal or no property
damage, but possibly some public threat or inconvenience.

Ice jams and snow melt are usually not a factor for flooding in this
part of the country.

Since the beginning of December, precipitation and temperatures
across most of the region has been below normal. Soil moisture was
near normal despite the below normal precipitation. Streamflows by
mid February have risen to near or above normal. Reservoir levels
have remained near normal.

Multiple weather systems will result in 2-5 inches of rain across
the region over the next week.

The 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks which go out through February
28 both call for above normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation. At this time of the year, normal temperatures are in
the low 40s and precipitation is around a half an inch.

The outlook for March calls for near to slightly above normal
precipitation. Normal precipitation is between four and five
inches. The seasonal outlook for March through May also is for above
normal precipitation.

The next spring and water resources outlook will be issued on March
1.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available for
precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as soil moisture at
www.cpc.noaa.gov.

Current snowpack data are available at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa.

Current streamflow data are available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch.

Current reservoir levels for this area are available at www.lrl-
wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html

Visit our web site weather.gov/lmk for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued March 1.

$$

EER



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