Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FGUS73 KLMK 111227
ESFLMK
INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-
017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103-
111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211-
213-215-217-223-229-239-181200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
824 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  9/15/2014 - 12/14/2014

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek       451.0  457.0  470.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cannelton Lock      42.0   46.0   50.0 :   6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
McAlpine Lower      55.0   65.0   73.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
McAlpine Upper      23.0   30.0   38.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Tell City           38.0   44.0   50.0 :  14   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring   25.0   42.0   45.0 :  17    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Green River
Brownsville         18.0   32.0   41.0 :  11   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Munfordville        28.0   50.0   57.0 :   8   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
Rochester           17.0   25.0   30.0 :  26   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
Woodbury            33.0   45.0   48.0 :  28   31   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rolling Fork River
Boston              35.0   42.0   45.0 :  22   25    9    9   <5   <5
:Barren River
Bowling Green       28.0   32.0   45.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana           20.0   22.0   23.0 :   8    8    6    6    5    5
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy              25.0   28.0   32.0 :  18   19    5    5   <5   <5
:Rough River
Dundee              25.0   28.0   30.0 :  14   15    8    9   <5   <5
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock      31.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Ford Lock           26.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
High Bridge Lock    30.0   36.0   39.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Blue River
Fredericksburg      20.0   24.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Salt River
Shepherdsville      32.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 9/15/2014 - 12/14/2014
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek        422.5  423.5  425.6  430.0  437.5  443.8  447.8
Cannelton Lock       14.4   16.0   18.9   25.8   35.4   40.3   42.6
McAlpine Lower       16.4   19.0   24.3   31.8   44.4   50.3   53.7
McAlpine Upper       12.5   12.5   12.5   12.8   17.2   20.2   22.9
Tell City            15.3   16.5   19.2   24.8   34.1   39.6   42.1
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring    14.1   14.4   15.3   18.4   23.0   26.8   30.3
:Green River
Brownsville          10.3   10.4   11.0   12.9   14.5   18.5   21.2
Munfordville          4.2    4.4    6.1   10.3   16.3   26.8   31.8
Rochester             9.9   10.0   11.6   13.3   17.3   20.7   22.2
Woodbury             12.1   12.6   16.2   22.7   34.8   39.7   41.9
:Rolling Fork River
Boston                7.9   11.4   16.4   25.7   33.7   41.9   44.9
:Barren River
Bowling Green         8.3    8.7    9.9   13.3   19.9   23.8   28.0
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana             4.6    5.6    6.5    9.0   13.0   18.2   23.7
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy                4.8    6.1    9.4   13.5   18.2   22.4   25.5
:Rough River
Dundee                7.5    8.5   11.0   14.7   19.1   27.6   28.9
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock        8.0    8.7   10.2   12.4   18.3   24.0   27.1
Ford Lock            10.9   11.4   13.7   16.0   19.0   23.0   25.1
High Bridge Lock     11.0   12.2   14.4   16.2   21.2   25.5   29.3
:Blue River
Fredericksburg        3.1    3.4    4.3    6.3    8.3   15.2   17.0
:Salt River
Shepherdsville        2.0    2.8    3.4    4.6    6.3   12.7   19.4

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/lmk for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued September 18.

$$
CMC







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