Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
845 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook covers south central Indiana, central Kentucky, and the
Ohio River from Madison Indiana to Tell City Indiana.

The flood risk in the middle of the Ohio Valley is normal for this
time of year. Minor flooding is expected due to the rain and snow
melt.

This outlook is valid from February 20 through March 6 2014.

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS, the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor, moderate, and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  2/24/2014 - 5/25/2014

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek       451.0  457.0  470.0 :  16   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cannelton Lock      42.0   46.0   50.0 :  38   33    9    9   <5   <5
McAlpine Lower      55.0   65.0   73.0 :  30   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
McAlpine Upper      23.0   30.0   38.0 :  37   32    8    9   <5   <5
Tell City           38.0   44.0   50.0 :  63   62   15   15   <5   <5
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring   25.0   42.0   45.0 :  53   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Green River
Brownsville         18.0   32.0   41.0 :  35   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
Munfordville        28.0   50.0   57.0 :  27   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
Rochester           17.0   25.0   30.0 :  64   63   12   15   <5   <5
Woodbury            33.0   45.0   48.0 :  63   62   11   13    7    7
:Rolling Fork River
Boston              35.0   42.0   45.0 :  43   44   22   22   10   14
:Barren River
Bowling Green       28.0   32.0   45.0 :  17   18    9    8   <5   <5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana           20.0   22.0   23.0 :  18   20   13   14   11   11
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy              25.0   28.0   32.0 :  38   37    7    7   <5   <5
:Rough River
Dundee              25.0   28.0   30.0 :  34   36   15   17   <5   <5
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock      31.0   35.0   40.0 :  15   14    8    8   <5   <5
Ford Lock           26.0   35.0   40.0 :  20   19    5    5   <5   <5
High Bridge Lock    30.0   36.0   39.0 :  19   19   11   11    8    8
:Blue River
Fredericksburg      20.0   24.0   27.0 :  18   17   10   10   <5   <5
:Salt River
Shepherdsville      32.0   35.0   40.0 :   7    7    6    6   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 2/24/2014 - 5/25/2014
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek        434.7  436.1  438.9  443.7  449.1  452.5  454.7
Cannelton Lock       31.4   34.0   37.3   40.8   43.4   45.4   49.7
McAlpine Lower       38.5   41.7   45.2   51.0   56.2   60.1   63.7
McAlpine Upper       15.5   16.6   17.4   20.7   25.1   29.0   32.2
Tell City            30.3   32.8   36.0   40.2   42.9   44.6   48.0
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring    19.7   20.5   21.6   25.6   30.2   35.3   37.1
:Green River
Brownsville          12.4   13.0   14.2   15.5   19.9   25.1   28.3
Munfordville         10.4   11.5   14.2   19.0   28.8   40.6   48.2
Rochester            13.4   14.4   15.8   18.5   22.4   25.7   28.8
Woodbury             22.7   26.3   30.5   36.0   41.8   45.5   50.3
:Rolling Fork River
Boston               21.9   24.1   26.8   32.9   41.3   45.2   48.0
:Barren River
Bowling Green        13.2   14.2   15.8   19.6   24.8   31.5   34.4
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana             8.6    9.1   10.3   13.4   17.2   23.6   25.7
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy               10.2   11.4   15.1   18.8   21.5   23.5   26.9
:Rough River
Dundee               16.6   18.2   19.9   21.9   27.0   28.6   29.4
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock       12.8   13.2   16.0   20.5   26.6   33.8   39.7
Ford Lock            17.1   17.6   18.7   19.9   24.6   29.2   36.1
High Bridge Lock     17.7   18.0   19.7   21.8   26.6   36.3   41.9
:Blue River
Fredericksburg        5.6    6.8    8.8   11.2   16.4   24.2   25.0
:Salt River
Shepherdsville        5.4    6.1    7.6    9.4   15.6   28.1   37.1

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data, including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service (AHPS).

This outlook calls for a normal chance of flooding due to current
conditions of ground moisture, river flows, snow pack, and expected
precipitation over the next two weeks. Minor flooding means minimal
or no property damage, but possibly some public threat or
inconvenience.

Snowmelt and ice jams are usually not a factor for flooding in this
part of the country. There is a small amount of snow on the ground
in the southern Indiana but it was melting quickly.

For the month of February, precipitation was near normal in Indiana
but one to two inches above in Kentucky. Soil moisture was above
normal. Reservoir levels and streamflows were above normal.

An intense storm system will move into the Ohio Valley this
afternoon and evening and dump between 1.00 and 1.50 inches of rain.
With saturated soils, the intense rain will runoff and quickly fill
already swollen rivers and streams. Thus, flash flooding will be a
threat tonight into Friday. After this system passes, and only light
precipitation is forecast into next week.

The 8 to 14 day outlook, valid February 27 through March 5 calls for
temperatures to be below normal and precipitation to be near
normal. At this time of year, normal precipitation is around 6
tenths of an inch and normal temperatures are around 40.

The outlook for March is for above normal precipitation. Normal
precipitation is between four and five inches. The season outlook
for March through May calls for above normal precipitation.

The next spring and water resources outlook will be issued March
6.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available for
precipitation and temperatures forecasts and current soil moisture
data at www.cpc.noaa.gov/products. Current snowpack data are
available at www.nohrsc.nws.gov/nsa. Current streamflow data are
available at water.usgs.gov/watchwatch. Visit out home page at
weather.gov/lmk for more weather and water information.

$$
CMC












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