Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014 /220 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

A FRONTAL ZONE HAS SAGGED INTO TENNESSEE TODAY AND WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A DEEP STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER
THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. ANY STORM COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...BUT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE OUTLOOK AREA. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM THESE STORMS.
THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR
AREA...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. IF
STORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY ARE ABLE TO MOVE OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...THEN NOT ONLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES BUT HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCAL FLOOD CONCERNS.

GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD VARY WIDELY ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON STORM
COVERAGE AND PROPAGATION. NEVERTHELESS, TOTAL ACCUMULATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, POSSIBLY ISOLATED HIGHER ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY, COULD OCCUR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION. DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. COMPLETE LAKE AND RIVER INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

$$

MJ/EER/BJS




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