Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
845 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook covers south central Indiana, central Kentucky, and the
Ohio River from Madison Indiana to Tell City Indiana.

The flood risk in the middle of the Ohio Valley is near normal for
this time of year. Minor flooding is expected due to rainfall.

This outlook is valid from February 17 through March 2 2016.

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS, the probability of exceeding
that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than
HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor, moderate, and major flooding...
                 Valid Period:  02/22/2017 - 05/23/2017

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Barren River
Bowling Green       28.0   32.0   45.0 :  22   23   16   16   <5   <5
:Blue River
Fredericksburg      20.0   24.0   27.0 :  23   27   13   14   <5   <5
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton             24.0   35.0   42.0 :  33   36   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill          10.0   12.0   14.0 :  78   63   76   60   <5   58
:Green River
Brownsville         18.0   32.0   41.0 :  34   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
Munfordville        28.0   50.0   57.0 :  26   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
Rochester           17.0   25.0   30.0 :  60   66   14   16   <5   <5
Woodbury            33.0   45.0   48.0 :  58   66   15   15    8    8
:Kentucky
Camp Nelson Lock    30.0   36.0   40.0 :  <5   57   <5   53   <5   51
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock      31.0   35.0   40.0 :  12   12    6    6   <5   <5
Ford Lock           26.0   35.0   40.0 :  21   23   <5    7   <5   <5
High Bridge Lock    30.0   36.0   39.0 :  17   17    6    6   <5   <5
Lockport Lock       33.0   43.0   49.0 :  37   36   12    9    6    6
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring   25.0   42.0   45.0 :  41   55   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy              25.0   28.0   32.0 :  22   21    9   <5   <5   <5
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek       451.0  457.0  470.0 :  10   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cannelton Lock      42.0   46.0   50.0 :  29   40    8    9   <5   <5
McAlpine Lower      55.0   65.0   73.0 :  21   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
McAlpine Upper      23.0   30.0   38.0 :  25   38    7    8   <5   <5
Tell City           38.0   44.0   50.0 :  54   65   10   16   <5   <5
:Rolling Fork River
Boston              35.0   42.0   45.0 :  46   50   22   22   14   14
:Rough River
Dundee              25.0   28.0   30.0 :  39   40   25   25    9   10
:Salt River
Shepherdsville      32.0   35.0   40.0 :   7    9   <5    7   <5   <5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana           20.0   22.0   23.0 :  27   28   19   20   15   15

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/22/2017 - 05/23/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Barren River
Bowling Green         9.7   12.1   14.5   19.5   26.5   35.2   38.2
:Blue River
Fredericksburg        6.0    7.4    9.1   11.5   19.2   25.0   25.9
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton               9.8   11.1   13.8   20.3   25.8   32.7   33.6
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill            5.1    6.2    7.2    8.5   12.5   16.3   20.0
:Green River
Brownsville          11.9   12.4   13.8   15.4   19.5   26.3   27.4
Munfordville          8.6   10.7   13.6   18.6   28.3   41.1   47.1
Rochester            12.4   13.2   14.7   18.6   21.9   26.1   28.1
Woodbury             17.8   21.1   27.9   35.4   41.6   46.5   49.8
:Kentucky
Camp Nelson Lock     18.9   20.4   21.8   23.8   28.8   36.8   41.2
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock       12.3   13.2   14.7   18.5   25.6   31.7   36.2
Ford Lock            15.8   17.2   18.3   20.0   25.1   28.9   32.3
High Bridge Lock     16.9   18.3   19.5   21.3   26.3   33.5   37.0
Lockport Lock        16.5   17.6   20.0   27.9   37.6   43.8   50.6
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring    14.4   15.7   18.1   22.7   29.2   35.6   38.7
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy               10.0   11.8   15.7   21.1   24.4   27.9   28.7
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek        431.2  434.2  437.9  442.1  447.2  451.0  454.9
Cannelton Lock       27.8   31.5   35.8   39.6   42.5   44.7   48.9
McAlpine Lower       33.9   38.3   44.0   49.0   53.7   58.5   63.1
McAlpine Upper       13.1   15.4   17.2   19.3   23.0   27.5   31.6
Tell City            26.6   30.3   34.4   38.8   42.0   44.0   47.3
:Rolling Fork River
Boston               14.7   20.8   26.1   33.7   41.1   46.5   49.2
:Rough River
Dundee               16.0   17.7   20.5   22.6   28.0   29.9   30.5
:Salt River
Shepherdsville        5.1    6.2    7.4   10.6   17.7   29.2   34.5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana             8.5    8.9   10.5   13.2   20.6   24.2   26.4

In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/22/2017 - 05/23/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Barren River
Bowling Green         7.7    5.7    4.4    4.0    3.8    3.8    3.7
:Blue River
Fredericksburg        2.8    2.7    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.3
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton               4.8    4.6    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.3    4.2
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill            2.4    2.3    2.2    2.1    2.0    2.0    1.9
:Green River
Brownsville           9.8    9.7    9.4    9.2    8.9    8.6    8.6
Munfordville          4.4    4.0    3.8    3.6    3.3    3.1    3.0
Rochester             9.5    9.2    8.5    7.9    7.4    6.9    6.7
Woodbury             11.1    9.9    8.9    7.9    7.1    6.5    6.4
:Kentucky
Camp Nelson Lock     12.5   12.3   12.0   11.7   11.6   11.4   11.3
:Kentucky River
Frankfort Lock        8.3    8.3    8.1    7.9    7.8    7.7    7.7
Ford Lock            10.8   10.6   10.3   10.1   10.0    9.8    9.7
High Bridge Lock     10.8   10.6   10.5   10.5   10.5   10.5   10.5
Lockport Lock        10.3   10.2    9.9    9.8    9.6    9.5    9.5
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring     8.7    8.6    8.4    8.3    8.3    8.3    8.2
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy                3.8    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.4
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek        423.1  422.3  421.9  421.6  421.3  421.2  421.1
Cannelton Lock       16.2   14.5   13.4   12.7   12.1   11.7   11.6
McAlpine Lower       18.6   16.1   14.6   13.4   12.5   11.9   11.7
McAlpine Upper       12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5
Tell City            16.7   15.4   14.6   14.0   13.5   13.0   12.9
:Rolling Fork River
Boston                6.4    6.1    5.2    4.6    4.4    4.2    4.1
:Rough River
Dundee                9.4    8.9    7.0    5.9    5.8    5.8    5.8
:Salt River
Shepherdsville        2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.6    1.6    1.5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana             4.7    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data, including current conditions of the river,
soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of
temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

This outlook calls for a near normal chance of flooding due to
current conditions of ground moisture, streamflows, and expected
precipitation over the next two weeks. Minor flooding means minimal
or no property damage, but possibly some public threat or
inconvenience.

Ice jams and snow melt are usually not a factor for flooding in this
part of the country.

Over the last 30 days, precipitation was within an inch of normal
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky but one to two inches
below normal in southern Kentucky. Soil moisture was near normal in
the east but below normal in the west. Reservoir levels were near
normal but streamflows were much below normal, with many locations
running less than 10 percent of normal.

Less than a half inch of precipitation is expected over the next
week.

The 8 to 14 day outlook, valid February 23 through March 1 calls for
temperatures and precipitation to be above normal. At this time of
the year, normal temperatures are in the low 40s and precipitation
is around an half inch.

The outlook for March is near normal precipitation. Normal
precipitation is between four and five inches. The seasonal outlook
for March through May calls for near normal precipitation as well.

The next spring and water resources outlook will be issued on
March 2.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available for
precipitation and temperature forecasts and current soil moisture
data at www.cpc.noaa.gov.

Current snowpack data are available at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa.

Current streamflow data are available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch.

Current reservoir levels for this area are available at lrl-
apps.lrl.usace.army.mil/wc/reports/lkreport.html.

Visit our web site weather.gov/lmk for more weather and water
information.

$$

Callahan



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