Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
255 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014 /155 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/

...ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WHILE A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED...AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST TOTALS
LIKELY WILL BE CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT. FOR NOW THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
AND BRING A FINAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. SHOULD THIS FRONT NOT MOVE
FAST...TRAINING OF THESE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING. CURRENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT 3 TO
AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR FROM TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. INITIALLY...THE RELATIVELY DRY GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO
ABSORB SOME OF THIS RAINFALL...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST AND RAINFALL AMOUNT THIS WEEKEND. SHOULD
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER EVENT. COMPLETE LAKE
AND RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE...AT
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

$$

RJS





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